Russia to export up to 125 mnt of coal to the east in 2026

• Russia’s eastern coal exports target 123-125 mnt in 2026
• Jan-Sep rail shipments to Far Eastern ports rose 11.1% y-o-y to 84 mnt

Russia’s coal exports in the eastern direction are projected to reach 123-125 mnt by the end of 2026, TASS reported, citing Russian officials. Total coal exports from the country are forecast at 211 mnt this year.

“We estimate the volume of freight transported eastward at around 123-125 mnt this year,” Russian Deputy Energy Minister Dmitry Islamov said on the sidelines of Russian Energy Week, held in Moscow on October 14-16.

According to Russian Energy Ministry data, coal shipments eastward reached 118.2 mnt in 2025, up 6.1% from the previous year.

Russia’s coal exports are primarily routed through ports in the Far East, followed by those in the northwest and south.

Since Western sanctions and import restrictions curtailed access to traditional European markets following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has increasingly redirected coal exports towards Asia.

This shift has heightened the strategic importance of expanding capacity along the Eastern Railway Polygon, a key rail corridor connecting coal-producing regions to Far Eastern ports and Asian markets.

In January-September 2026, Russian coal shipments by rail to Far Eastern ports reached 84 mnt, up 11.1% on year and accounting for about 65% of the 129.9 mnt shipped to ports nationwide, according to the latest data from the Russian Railways (RZD).

During August 2026, coal shipments through the Taman terminal, a key southern outlet for Russian coal exports, were severely curtailed by disruptions in the Black Sea basin, bringing Russia’s southern coal shipments to a halt.

The disruption highlights the importance of expanding capacity along the Eastern Railway Polygon, whose development is not merely a Russian Railways project but a strategic priority for the entire coal industry.

Overall Outlook: Russia’s coal export strategy will remain increasingly Asia-focused as Western sanctions continue to restrict access to traditional European markets. Rising eastern shipments will strengthen the importance of the Eastern Railway Polygon and Far Eastern ports, making infrastructure expansion critical to sustaining export growth.

However, rail capacity constraints and disruptions at southern ports could create logistical bottlenecks, affecting shipment reliability and export flows to Asian markets.

Note: The article is published as part of a content sharing agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.