Myanmar: Rice prices hit nearly 2-year high amid supply shortages

• 5% broken rice rises to $505/t, highest since Sep’24
• Exports projected to fall 9% y-o-y to 2.1 mnt in 2026-27

Myanmar’s 5% broken white rice prices rose to a nearly two-year high of $505/t (t) FOB FCL on Aug 14 amid tightening supplies, making it the most expensive among major Asian suppliers and potentially weakening its export competitiveness.

Prices reach highest level since September 2024

Myanmar’s 5% broken white rice export prices rose to $505/t FOB FCL, up $10/t w-o-w, amid tightening supplies. The price is at its highest level since 27 September 2024, when the same grade was quoted at $510/t. The increase has made Myanmar rice the most expensive among major Asian suppliers. Myanmar’s 5% broken rice is currently priced $65/t above Thai rice, $70/t above Vietnamese rice, $108/t above Pakistani rice and $143/t above Indian rice. This could weigh on Myanmar’s export competitiveness, as buyers may increasingly favour lower-priced origins

Tight supplies push prices higher

The rise in prices is mainly attributed to a shortage of long-grain white rice, with supplies from the current harvest gradually dwindling. Market sellers are also holding back stocks, further restricting availability. At the same time, higher domestic rice prices are narrowing exporters’ margins and reducing their willingness to sell at current price levels. Market costs were already high, leaving exporters with limited profits at prevailing prices. Market participants are therefore becoming cautious about committing to further purchases at elevated prices.

Philippines demand remains stable

Despite higher prices, demand from the Philippines, one of Myanmar’s major rice customers in recent months, remains relatively stable, with orders for 5% broken white rice still being reported. Myanmar exported 126,416 t of rice to the Philippines in July, accounting for 74.3% of its total rice exports during the month. Philippines is gradually reducing its dependence on a single source and expanding imports from other countries, while purchases from Myanmar have increased this year. However, export activity remains constrained as the Philippines has not issued new sanitary and phytosanitary permits, leaving Myanmar exporters largely dependent on previously issued permits.

Harvest, import demand to shape near-term outlook

Short-term rice price movements in Myanmar are expected to depend largely on the progress of the new harvest, which is expected to begin in mid-September, and changes in import demand. While current supplies remain tight, Myanmar’s broader export outlook is weak. Myanmar’s rice exports for the 2026-27 crop year (January-December) are projected to decline 8.7% y-o-y to around 2.1 million tonnes (mnt).

Outlook

Myanmar’s rice prices are likely to remain firm in the near term as tight long-grain supplies and elevated domestic prices continue to limit export availability. However, sustained high prices could challenge export volumes and competitiveness, particularly if buyers shift towards lower-priced origins. The September harvest and demand from the Philippines will be key to determining whether supply pressure eases and prices moderate.