Indonesian portside thermal coal prices in India hold steady amid festive slowdown

• Coal prices remain stable amid weak demand during festival
• Declining inventories, freight/GST uncertainties keep buyers cautious

The Indian portside market for Indonesian thermal coal remained largely stable during the week ending 3 October 2025, as seasonal factors weighed on demand.

BigMint assessments showed the 5000 GAR grade unchanged week-on-week at INR 7,100/t at Kandla, while rising slightly by INR 50/t to INR 7,050/t at Vizag. The 4200 GAR grade was steady at INR 5,900/t in Kandla and INR 5,800/t in Vizag, while the 3400 GAR grade held at INR 4,500/t in Navlakhi.

Market participants indicated subdued demand, citing extended monsoon and reduced industrial activity during the Navratri holiday period. Additionally, the absence of Chinese buyers further dampened sentiment, keeping trade volumes limited.

Freight rates edge higher on Indonesian route

Ocean freight rates for Indonesian coal moved higher, although overall costs remained manageable for Indian buyers. Supramax freight on the East Kalimantan-Navlakhi route rose by $2/dmt w-o-w to $16.47/dmt, reflecting short-term volatility in the shipping market.

Erosion in power plant coal stocks sparks concern

Coal inventories at Indian power plants dropped to 45.84 million tonnes (mnt) as of 30 September 2025, equivalent to only 15 days of consumption. The decline pushed 18 plants into the critical stock category – 11 dependent on domestic coal and seven on imported coal raising concerns over fuel security amid restrained arrivals.

Portside inventories edge lower amid buyer caution

At the portside, thermal coal inventories dipped marginally to 11.86 mnt in week 39 from 11.93 mnt in the previous week. Traders pointed to fluctuating freight rates and uncertainties linked to the recent GST reform as key reasons for the cautious restocking trend.

Global market shows limited price movement

Seaborne prices for Indonesian coal registered mild declines during the week. The 5800 GAR grade slipped by $0.38/t to $76.10/t, while the 4200 GAR grade fell by $0.55/t to $43.32/t. The 3400 GAR grade remained stable at $30.63/t, reflecting muted demand from key Asian markets.

Outlook: Festive lull keeps market range-bound

Coal prices at Indian ports remain stable for now, constrained by muted festive demand and limited overseas activity. Post-holiday restocking, freight shifts, and GST implementation could steer market direction.