Indonesia raises thermal coal benchmark prices for late Mar’26; lower-grade coal prices gain support

• Lower-CV coal demand strong, supporting higher benchmark gains
• Prices firm though trends vary across calorific grades

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has revised the country’s thermal coal benchmark price (HBA) for the second half of March 2026, with prices registering marginal increases compared to the first half of March for higher-calorific grades and relatively stronger gains for lower-CV segments.

The adjustment reflects varying demand dynamics across different coal qualities in the seaborne market.

Mixed price movements across segments

Benchmark movements across calorific value (CV) categories indicated differentiated demand trends. The 6,322 kcal/kg GAR benchmark increased marginally compared to first half of March by around 1% to $103.01/t, supported by steady demand from key Asian buyers and limited availability of higher-grade material.

Similarly, the 5,300 kcal/kg GAR (HBA-I) index rose slightly by 0.4% to $71.55/t, reflecting stable buying interest but cautious procurement amid elevated prices.

Lower-calorific coal grades recorded comparatively stronger gains. The HBA-II index for 4,100 kcal/kg GAR increased by 1.4% to $48.32/t, driven by consistent demand from price-sensitive markets such as South and Southeast Asia, where utilities continue to prioritise lower-cost fuel options.

Meanwhile, the HBA-III benchmark for 3,400 kcal/kg GAR remained stable at $34.25/t, indicating balanced demand and supply conditions in the ultra-low grade segment.

Factors influencing the benchmark revisions

The upward adjustments were primarily influenced by firm seaborne coal prices, sustained demand from Asian power producers, and supply-side caution among Indonesian miners. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding export policies and rising freight costs have encouraged market participants to maintain firm price expectations, particularly for lower-grade coal that remains competitive for power generation in developing markets.

Market outlook

Indonesian thermal coal benchmark prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by steady Asian utility demand and disciplined producer supply. However, trends may remain uneven, with lower-CV coal supported by cost competitiveness, while higher-CV grades could face mild pressure if energy markets stabilise.