India: Primary mills hike rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($11/t) for early-Oct’25

• Property registrations rise m-o-m in Sep’25
• Raw material tags stay largely stable m-o-m

Indian primary mills have increased rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/tonne (t) ($11/t) for early-October 2025 deliveries as against prices prevailing in end-September, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 47,000-48,500/t ($530-546/t) on landed basis. It should be noted that mills had offered discounts/rebates to augment sales last month.

In the projects segment, prices opened at INR 46,500-47,500/t ($524-535/t) FOR Mumbai basis for early-October dispatches.

Rebar inventories at Tier-1 mills increased by 4% m-o-m in early-October as against inventories in early-September, sources informed.

Update on projects

• IRCON: INR 224.5 crore Letter of Acceptance (LOA) from Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR) for works at NJP, SGUJ, Katihar – 18 months; INR 510.47 crore EPC for Eklavya Model Residential Schools, Meghalaya – 36 months.
• RITES: INR 78.65 crore contract from NTPC for diesel locomotive leasing – September 2025 to September 2027.
• Dilip Buildcon: LOAs of INR 2,905 crore (Rajasthan Water Grid) and INR 1,115.37 crore (Kerala Industrial Corridor).
• L&T secured $700 million Sustainability Linked Trade Facility with Standard Chartered.
• Ramky Infra’s Subsidiary secured an INR 2,085-crore HMWSSB Water Supply Project.
• L&T has reached an in-principle agreement with the Government of Telangana for the takeover of Hyderabad Metro Rail SPV.
• L&T’s Buildings and Factories business secured major orders for a 5.9 mn sq. ft IT Park in Bengaluru and a mixed-use development project in Mumbai.
• Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) emerged as the lowest bidder (L1) from Western Railways, with the contract falling under the normal course of business of the company.
• RITES bagged an INR 36.23 crore, 730-day DVC contract for AMC, O&M, and OHE operations.

Factors influencing market dynamics

1. Property registrations rise m-o-m: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, rose by 7% to 12,070 units in September 2025 as against 11,230 units in August 2025, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On a y-o-y basis, registrations witnessed an increase of 33% from 9,100 units in the same period last year.

Property registrations surged in September 2025, driven by festive-season demand, stable interest rates, policy ease, premium-segment interest, and active redevelopment and infrastructure projects enhancing buyer confidence.

2. Raw material prices stable m-o-m: Raw material prices remained largely range-bound in September on a m-o-m basis. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained stable m-o-m at a monthly average price of INR 5,400/t ($61/t) ex-mines in September. Market activity was subdued due to ongoing festive holidays and limited production across major mining regions. Market participants highlighted that the availability of material in the spot market remained tight, while miners refrained from offering fresh quantities amid ongoing dispatch challenges.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices were stable m-o-m at an average of $203/t CNF Paradip in September.

3. IF rebar prices drop m-o-m in Sep’25: Trade-level IF-rebar prices in India showed a broadly weak to mixed trend in September 2025. At the beginning of the month, demand improvements led to minor price gains, but overall market activity remained subdued due to the festive season and monsoon-related disruptions, particularly in the central and eastern regions. Inventory levels remained moderately high at 12-15 days, prompting manufacturers to offer discounts to clear stock. Market sentiment was cautious, driven by limited buying interest and the need to manage excess inventory. Rebar prices dropped by INR 300/t ($3/t) m-o-m to a monthly average of INR 44,100/t ($497/t) exw-Mumbai in September 2025.

The BF-IF rebar monthly average price gap stood at around INR 4,000-4,500/t ($45-51/t) in Mumbai in the month of July. IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share in India.

Outlook
Trade-level BF-rebar prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term amid extended monsoons and subdued market sentiment, though recent price hikes have lent some support to the trade market.