India: Bulk HRC imports drop nearly 30% y-o-y in H1FY’26

• Safeguard duty helps shield domestic steel industry
• Exports rise 11%, CBAM concerns drive restocking

India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in April-September 2025, i.e, H1 of FY’26, totalled 2.2 million tonnes (mnt), a decline of 29% y-o-y from 3.12 mnt in the same period in FY’25, according to BigMint data.

In H1FY’26, South Korea, China, and Japan were India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 960,247 tonnes (t), 496,783 t, and 472,786 t, respectively. Notably, South Korean imports inched down slightly by 4% y-o-y, while shipments from Japan declined by 41% and imports from China shrank by 34% during the same period.

Why did HRC imports fall in H1FY’26?

India has officially implemented a 12% safeguard duty on steel imports covering flat steel products such as HRC, CRC, and coated steel, according to a notification issued by the Ministry of Finance. The notification stated, “The government, after reviewing the findings of the Director General Trade Remedies (DGTR), hereby imposes a provisional safeguard duty of 12 percent ad valorem.”

However, this duty will not apply to major flat steel products if their prices meet or exceed the following thresholds, for HRC at $675/t CIF.

In April-September, India saw a sharp drop in HRC imports after the government imposed a 12% safeguard duty to protect domestic producers. The duty raised landed costs and, along with stricter compliance and strong local demand, made domestic steel more competitive. As a result, buyers increasingly shifted towards sourcing from domestic mills.

Exports rise y-o-y

On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes rose by 11% y-o-y in H1FY’26 to 964,183 t compared to 865,748 t in H1FY’25.

Additionally, the European Union was the largest destination for exports during this period, as this rise was largely driven by EU buyers accelerating purchases ahead of the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Concerns over its future implementation prompted importers to secure volumes in advance. Moreover, Indian mills have already resumed HRC export offers to the Middle East in August, encouraged by rising Chinese export prices.

Outlook

India’s steel sector has made a strong start to FY’26, with exports increasing by 11% and imports dropping nearly 29%. The outlook remains positive in the short term, backed by strong EU demand, competitive prices, and policy support. However, global competition and seasonal slowdowns may test this momentum, requiring Indian producers to stay adaptable and focus on sustainability.