China: Iron ore spot prices remain weak as buyers remain away

• Start of Chinese Golden Week holidays limits market activity
• Improved market sentiment, govt policy measures offer support

Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices remained unchanged d-o-d at $93/dmt CFR China on 30 September 2026. Prices remained stable ahead of the Chinese Golden Week holidays as most market participants prepared to remain away from the market during the October 1-7 break. Slightly improved sentiment across the ferrous complex, following China’s latest housing and targeted monetary support measures, also helped underpin prices.

China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in September from 49.8% in August, returning to expansion territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. However, the improved macro backdrop had limited impact on physical iron ore demand, as mills had already covered most of their holiday requirements. The earlier restocking cycle was largely priced in, leaving little scope for additional buying ahead of the holiday.

The seaborne fines market saw limited activity d-o-d as Chinese participants began stepping away ahead of the weeklong Golden Week holiday. The yuan’s recent appreciation against the US dollar offered some support to import economics, while lower iron ore prices provided a slight improvement in mill margins. However, buying interest remained subdued as holiday-related restocking had largely concluded and ongoing finished steel output cuts continued to constrain procurement.

Market activity is expected to remain muted during the holiday break, with most participants likely to stay on the sidelines. Trading interest is expected to gradually resume towards the end of next week as Chinese mills and traders return to the market.

DCE iron ore futures remain stable

January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) remained largely unchanged at RMB 702.5/tonne (t) ($104.6/t) on 30 September against a day prior. Futures sentiment remained subdued as weak spot demand and cautious mill procurement continued to weigh on the market ahead of the Golden Week holidays.