- Mills expect price drop on the EU scrap surplus
- Steel demand weak ahead of June 5 Eid holidays
Turkish deep-sea imported scrap prices remained stable at $347/t CFR w-o-w, supported by a recent US-origin deal that reaffirmed current levels. Both buyers and sellers held firm on their price ideas, leading to limited trading activity. Sellers remained resistant to downward pressure, expecting mills to resume restocking soon.
However, caution lingered in the market, with mills anticipating softer prices amid ample availability of European-origin scrap.
A Turkish mill-side participant observed that European suppliers remain actively offering scrap, while US-origin offers are notably absent. European sellers are targeting prices below $346/t CFR, a level that appears achievable amid growing expectations of a price decline.
However, many sellers are facing a shortage of serious buyers, especially as the Eid holiday approaches, the participant added.
BigMint’s price assessments
- US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood at $347/t CFR Turkiye, stable w-o-w.
- Bulk HMS 80:20 from the US East Coast was at $324/t FOB, stable w-o-w.
The Turkish rebar-to-scrap spread stood at $200-210/t, with workable levels for Turkish rebars heard up to $545-550/t FOB.
Approximately 3-4 deep-sea deals were concluded over the past week in the $343-347/t CFR range.
Market commentary
Offers for US/Baltic-origin HMS 80:20 were largely within $345-348/t CFR. Turkish mills continued to report ample HMS 80:20 availability, reinforcing bearish sentiment. EU-origin HMS 80:20 was initially offered at $345/t CFR but later softened to $342/t CFR.
A Turkish mill-side participant stated that with rebar prices at $545/t exw, scrap values should ideally settle near $340-345/t CFR, leaving limited room for price increases.
Another mill-side source pointed out that softer billet prices from the Far East and CIS are curbing scrap demand. “Billet prices are weighing on scrap, and mills are in no rush to book material as alternative steelmaking routes remain available,” the source noted.
A market participant commented, “While buyers claim the market is full of offers, sellers see steady demand and tight availability. The market feels balanced, but it depends on how long Turkish mills can delay buying. They’ll try to push European scrap below $340/t CFR.”
Domestic market scenario
Rebar prices in Turkiye’s domestic market continued to drop ahead of the Eid holidays due to sluggish demand. Buy-side sources saw this as a bearish signal for imported scrap.
A trader observed that with holidays starting on 5 June, flat and long steel prices are softening and sentiment remains weak. However, mills may still try to avoid running low on scrap.
Outlook
In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, with the possibility of a $5/t decline next week. While mills are hesitant to book at current levels, sellers remain firm, anticipating restocking demand for late June to early July shipment cargoes.
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