- Limited demand drives further scrap price declines
- High freight costs hinder Asian market absorption
This week saw significant change in the Turkish imported scrap market. US origin bulk scrap prices to Turkiye hit a nearly three-year low, dropping sharply by $33/t w-o-w, reaching levels last seen in June 2022.
US export demand slowed as cheaper Chinese billets flowed into the global market, particularly impacting US scrap purchasers such as Turkiye among others.
In the US, domestic scrap prices experienced a significant drop from March levels, influenced by weak flat steel sentiment. Prime grades fell by approximately $20/t, cut grades dropped by $30/t, and shredded scrap saw a decline of up to $40/t. In the Southeast, obsolete scrap dropped by $5-8/t w-o-w. Shredded scrap was assessed at $415-420/t (Midwest) and $412-415/t (Southeast), while HMS was priced at $366-370/t and $362-365/t, respectively.
BigMint’s price assessments
- US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood at $330-335/t CFR Turkiye, down $30-35/t w-o-w.
- Rotterdam HMS 80:20 bulk FOB Europe also declined to $320-325/t, marking a drop of $25-30/t w-o-w.
Recent deals
- Denmark to Aegean region: HMS 80:20 sold at $348/t CFR Turkiye.
- UK to Mediterranean region: HMS 80:20 sold at $335/t CFR.
- Netherlands to Mediterranean region: HMS 80:20 sold at $330/t CFR.
- USA to West Marmara region: HMS 80:20 sold at $331.5/t CFR.
- Germany to Aegean region: HMS 75:25 sold at $333/t CFR.
Market reactions
“We have seen a sudden drop in prices over the last two to three days,” said a major mill-side source. “The domestic market is practically stagnant with no transactions happening. We are not selling at the moment, and billet and slab imports are entering Turkiye. Additionally, export volumes are low, further contributing to the downturn.”
“There are clearly more cargoes than buyers in the market right now,” said a UK-based scrap trader. “We are expecting another $8-10/t drop ahead, given the ongoing tariff uncertainty, political instability, sluggish finished steel sales, and the influx of cheaper Chinese billets. The UK dock price is at GBP 245-250/t ($325-330/t). So, the market is in a very bad condition right now.”
“Most deals were sealed in the first half of this week, and we saw prices varying depending on origin, shipment timing, and the recent drop in US domestic scrap values,” said a major US scrap supplier.
“This shift has made US cargoes slightly more competitive than European material,” he added.
“The market feels crushed. If demand doesn’t pick up, prices could slide to $320-325/t next week – maybe even touch $300s, considering the volume of offers floating around. I still have some bookings open for May shipments,”noted an EU-based scrap yard source, hinting that a floor might not form before June or July.
“There is slim possibility of cargoes being diverted to Asia – India, Bangladesh, or Vietnam,” shared an Indian bulk scrap trader. “But India, at $365/t for bulk HMS, isn’t workable now. Buyers are pushing for sub-$360/t deals, which are not viable given current freight rates. The game now depends on Asia – whoever pays more will grab the cargo. European suppliers must start eyeing Indian buyers. At $330/t for Turkiye with freight at $29-31/t, that translates to $365/t in India with freight at $60-62/t.”
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