- Off-season acreage contraction trims production
- Weak exports and rising inventories point to a softer outlook
Thailand’s rice market is entering a softer phase, with production declining and inventories rising, even as domestic demand remains stable. Milled rice output for MY 2026/27 is projected at around 20.3 mnt, down about 2% y-o-y, mainly due to a contraction in off-season paddy acreage to nearly 1.9 million hectares from 2.1 million hectares last season.
Output declines on weaker off-season planting
The decline reflects water availability concerns amid forecasts of drier conditions linked to emerging El Niño patterns, alongside stricter enforcement of agricultural burning restrictions. Softer farm-gate prices have further reduced incentives for second-crop planting, while main-crop acreage remains stable at about 9 million hectares, supported by irrigated regions.
Exports weaken as stocks build up
Domestic consumption is expected to hold steady at around 12.4 mnt, with demand from the food service sector supported by a recovery in tourism, projected to reach 36 million arrivals in 2026. However, structural declines in per capita consumption continue to cap overall demand growth.
Exports are forecast at approximately 7.3 mnt, pressured by a stronger Thai baht and intense competition from India, Vietnam, and Pakistan. Rising freight and insurance costs due to geopolitical disruptions are further impacting competitiveness.
As a result, ending stocks are expected to rise to around 4.6 mnt, equivalent to about 4.5 months of consumption, indicating a surplus. With ample supply and weak export demand, rice prices particularly for commodity grades are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
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