- Indian imports fall sharply
- Weak demand weighs on exports
South Africa’s non-coking coal exports declined sharply in June’26, falling 16.4% m-o-m to 4.99 mnt from 5.97 mnt in May. However, exports remained significantly higher by 147% y-o-y compared with 2.02 mnt in June’25. The monthly decline reflected weaker buying from key Asian markets, particularly India, amid subdued industrial demand and cautious procurement. Comfortable inventories at importing destinations and slower buying activity also weighed on export volumes.
H1 exports remain below last year
During January-June, South Africa exported 31.65 mnt of non-coking coal, down 5.0% y-o-y from 33.31 mnt in H1’25. The decline was primarily driven by lower shipments to India, which imported 13.74 mnt during the first six months of 2026, compared with 16.91 mnt in the corresponding period last year, a decline of 18.7% y-o-y. The fall in Indian demand was largely attributed to ample domestic coal availability, regular Coal India auctions, weak sponge iron and steel market conditions, and cautious procurement with the onset of monsoons.
Increased shipments to destinations such as Pakistan (3.89 mnt vs 2.29 mnt), South Korea (1.54 mnt vs 1.29 mnt), Israel (1.25 mnt vs 0.78 mnt) and China (0.99 mnt vs 0.30 mnt) partly offset the decline in Indian imports, although not enough to prevent an overall reduction in South Africa’s export volumes.
Indian imports decline on weak industrial demand
India remained the largest destination for South African coal in June, importing 1.54 mnt, down 39.1% m-o-m from 2.53 mnt in May and 23.8% y-o-y from 2.02 mnt in June’25.
Buying activity remained subdued throughout the month as consumers continued favouring lower-priced domestic coal over imported material. Weak sponge iron and steel market conditions, the onset of the monsoon and comfortable coal availability discouraged fresh import bookings. Market participants reported that enquiries were largely absent, dispatches remained slow and traders focused on liquidating existing inventories rather than booking fresh vessel cargoes.
Port arrivals shift across India
Among Indian ports, Paradip received 0.24 mnt of South African coal in June, increasing sharply from 0.08 mnt in May. Krishnapatnam remained largely stable at 0.17 mnt, while Mangalore handled 0.18 mnt, slightly lower than 0.22 mnt in May.
No South African cargoes were recorded at Vizag and Dhamra during June, compared with 0.76 mnt and 0.33 mnt, respectively, in May. The absence of arrivals reflected extremely weak enquiries and limited fresh vessel bookings as buyers continued relying on existing inventories and domestic coal supplies.
Other destinations show mixed performance
Outside India, export trends remained mixed. Pakistan’s imports increased to 0.64 mnt from 0.44 mnt in May, while Japan’s imports rose to 0.18 mnt from 0.15 mnt. The Netherlands also recorded higher imports of 0.40 mnt, compared with 0.13 mnt a month earlier.
Meanwhile, imports into China declined sharply to 0.08 mnt from 0.42 mnt, while South Korea received 0.15 mnt, down from 0.36 mnt. Taiwan also recorded lower imports at 0.16 mnt against 0.32 mnt in May. Around 0.81 mnt of cargoes remained classified under unspecified destinations.
Outlook
South African coal exports are expected to remain under pressure in the near term as weak steel demand, sluggish sponge iron production and ample domestic coal availability continue to limit Indian import demand. Market participants expect buying activity to remain largely requirement-based during the monsoon season, with traders likely to avoid fresh cargo bookings until existing inventories reduce and downstream industrial demand shows a sustained recovery.
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