South Africa: Non-coking coal exports rise over 50% m-o-m in Mar’25

• Export volumes to India jump twofold
• Exports to Japan, South Korea drop sharply

South Africa’s non-coking coal exports surged 52% m-o-m to 6.83 million tonnes (mnt) in March 2025, rebounding from 4.50 mnt in February, as per BigMint data. The sharp recovery follows earlier disruptions in February, when railway issues impacted shipments. The overall volume for Q1 2025 stood at 17.27 mnt.

Exports to India double in March

India’s coal imports from South Africa more than doubled (up 119% m-o-m) to 3.46 mnt in March from 1.58 mnt in February due to resumption in purchases following a decline in February, when many shifted to domestic coal amid frequent auctions by Coal India subsidiaries (SECL, ECL, MCL, etc.) offering coal at competitive prices.

Other key buyers:

• Pakistan’s imports remained stable at 0.32 mnt, slightly lower than 0.33 mnt in February.
• South Korea’s imports fell 43% m-o-m to 0.26 mnt in March from 0.46 mnt in February.
• Japan’s imports dropped significantly by 76% m-o-m to 0.09 mnt, from 0.37 mnt in February, indicating a major cutback in purchases.
• Vietnam’s imports declined 24% to 0.16 mnt from 0.21 mnt.
• The Netherlands saw a marginal decline in imports to 0.32 mnt from 0.36 mnt in February.

Portside prices in India soften further

The rising availability of domestic coal, along with improved South African shipments, led to a slight decline in portside prices at Gangavaram:

• RB3 (4800 NAR) prices averaged INR 7,100/t in March, down from INR 7,200/t in February.
• RB2 (5500 NAR) prices averaged INR 8,450/t in March, falling from INR 8,595/t in February.

Market outlook

The strong rebound in South African exports in March suggests stabilisation of supply after logistical disruptions in February. However, with domestic auctions in India continuing, demand for imported coal may remain price-sensitive, affecting future trade volumes.

South African portside thermal coal prices remained largely unchanged w-o-w. RB2 (5500 NAR) continued to hover at around INR 8,450/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) rose by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 7,200/t. Prices at some ports increased for RB3 due to limited availability. Trade activity remained subdued amid falling domestic coal prices, and no major deals were heard, keeping overall market sentiment unchanged.