- Mill operations under 40% as floods wreak havoc
- Pick-up likely after mid-Oct as weather stabilises
Pakistan’s imported scrap prices declined slightly w-o-w. Shredded scrap from Europe was offered at $370-375/t CFR, with deals concluded at $367-370/t CFR compared to late August levels of nearly 375/t. While the monsoon impact is fading and weather conditions are stabilising, the market is expected to stay range-bound until the end of September.
Market activity is likely to pick up from October, though liquidity constraints, including forex shortages, persist. Overall sentiment was cautiously optimistic.
BigMint assessed European/UK-origin shredded at $370/tonne (t) CFR Qasim, inching down by $1/t w-o-w.
Market commentary
“Domestic rebars were traded at PKR 235,000-236,000/t ($829-833/t), while billets were at around PKR 200,000-202,000/t ($706-713/t) and scrap at PKR 138,000-140,000/t ($487-494/t). Bala was heard at PKR 188,000-190,000/t ($664-671/t). UK shredded was workable at $375/t CFR Qasim for quick-arrival cargoes already in water, while forward shipments were being discussed at $368-370/t, with deals mostly closing near $368/t levels,” a major trading house representative said.
A Karachi-based steelmaker said, “We last booked 1,000 t of UK HMS at $367/t CFR Qasim for 30-35 day forward shipment. Near-arrival UK lots are now offered at $378/t, about $4-5/t lower w-o-w. Mill operations remain under 40% capacity, with floods slowing overall activity. We expect a pick-up only after mid-October.”
As per a UAE-based exporter, UAE HMS was workable at around $368/t CFR Qasim, while sheared HMS offers were at $370/t. Shredded from Dubai stood firm at $387/t. UK-based suppliers were active too — offers hovered at $368/t, with a 500-t deal recently concluded at $373/t.
Pakistan’s deadly floods have worsened the dollar shortage, disrupting banks and exchange outlets, and fuelling concerns over the rupee’s recent rally. Over 930 lives have been lost and 4 million displaced, with supply chains and forex flows under strain. Analysts warn that the crisis could weaken reserves covering less than three months of imports, threatening the rupee’s 25-session winning streak. Dealers expect dollar availability to normalise within 10-15 days, though many see the rupee slipping back to 285-290/US dollar by year-end.
Outlook
Pakistan’s scrap market is expected to stay range-bound through September, with mill operations below 40% and dollar shortages weighing on imports. Activity may improve from mid-October, as the weather stabilises and supply chains recover, but liquidity constraints and currency pressure could keep sentiment cautious in the near term.
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