LME tin prices strengthens w-o-w amid DRC peace agreement, tightening Chinese ore supply

• Chinese ore tightening provided mild price support
• DRC peace deal to reduced supply concerns

Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) inched higher in the week ended 5 December, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the DRC, expectations of a US interest rate cut, and tightening tin ore supply in China, collectively boosting market sentiment and short-term price stability.

Pricing, inventory trends

LME tin prices averaged $39,602/tonne (t) in the week ended 5 December, marking an $1,580/t or 4.2% rise w-o-w from the previous week. The week began with prices at $38,900/t, which inched up to around $40,075/t mid-week and then closed at $40,100/t.

Meanwhile, tin inventories at LME-registered warehouses rose 1.1% to 3,152 t from 3,116 t in the previous week.

What impacted prices?

Tin prices strengthened as geopolitical developments, macroeconomic expectations, and domestic supply dynamics collectively supported market sentiment. A major driver was the easing of tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, following the peace agreement signed between DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Washington, D.C. The long-standing conflict has frequently threatened mine operations in the region–one of the world’s key tin-producing hubs. With mediation by the US and Qatar leading to a formal peace deal, traders became less worried about potential supply disruptions at African mines, helping stabilise and lift prices.

On the macro front, expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December gained momentum, with market-implied probabilities nearing 85%. This pressured the US dollar, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to investors and providing additional support to tin prices.

In China, the tin ore market remained weak on both supply and demand fronts, but tightening ore availability in Yunnan offered a mild floor to prices. Smelters are expected to maintain relatively steady production through December, preventing any significant loosening of domestic supply.

Outlook

Tin prices may stay supported in the upcoming week as geopolitical risks ease and the softer US dollar continues to offer a tailwind. However, with demand still sluggish and no clear improvement in fundamentals, prices are likely to trade in a narrow range until clearer signals emerge.