LME aluminium prices edge up w-o-w on US supply disruption, decline in inventory

• Global aluminium market faces supply deficit
• Novelis plant outage tightens supply in the US 

London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices inched up during week 42 of CY’25 (13-17 October 2025).

Aluminum prices inched up due to a major supply disruption at Novelis’s Oswego plant, which halted 40% of US auto-grade aluminum sheet production. The resulting force majeure, combined with steep 50% import tariffs, pushed the US domestic premiums to a record $0.77/lb. While overseas supply is helping, high costs and tight domestic supply continue to drive prices.

Additionally, the decline in China’s aluminum production provided further support to prices observed during the week.

Pricing, inventory trends

LME aluminium prices averaged $2,752/t in week 42, marking a $36/t or 1.3% rise w-o-w from week 41 (6 – 10 October). The week began with prices at $2,750/t, which dropped to around $2,748/t mid-week, and closing strong at $2,766/t.

Supporting the price rally, LME aluminium inventories declined by 1.5%, falling to 499,915 t in week 42 from 507,290 t the previous week, indicating tightening supply conditions.

China’s primary aluminum output rises

China produced approximately 3.65 mnt of primary aluminum in September, up 2.3% y-o-y despite a 2.5% m-o-m dip, according to the NBS. Daily output rose to 121,600 t, pushing annualized production to 44.39 mnt, reflecting continued growth momentum in the world’s largest aluminum-producing country.

Additionally, the WBMS reported a global primary aluminum supply deficit of 105,400 t in August, with production at 6.13 mnt and consumption at 6.24 mnt. Cumulatively, January-August saw a shortfall of 1.16 mnt. Meanwhile, global alumina output for August reached 12.89 mnt, totaling 99.47 mnt for the year.

LME Week 2025 updates

At LME Week 2025, Maaden’s CEO emphasized the company’s plan to double aluminum production in the next five years, positioning Maaden as a global leader in the sector. Focused on technology, talent, and responsible growth, Maaden aims to leverage Saudi Arabia’s strategic advantages while shifting global perceptions of both the company and the Kingdom.

Outlook

Aluminum prices are expected to remain supported in the short term amid tight US supply following the Novelis outage and declining LME inventories. However, rising global production, including China’s steady output growth, and soft demand may cap further price gains. Market participants will closely watch supply developments and macroeconomic trends for direction in the coming weeks.