Japan: Crude steel production projected to rise 2% in Oct-Dec’26

• Construction steel demand to grow 2%, manufacturing consumption to dip 1%
• Exports to slow amid growing protectionism, high Chinese steel exports 

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, on 15 October, has forecast crude steel production of 20.67 million tonnes (mnt) for October-December, up by 2.3% y-o-y. Although production level is expected to remain low, it is projected to exceed the year-ago level for the third consecutive quarter. For calendar year 2026, crude steel production is estimated at 81.16 mnt, marking the first annual increase since 2021.

At a press conference on the same day, Jiko Tsuwaki, director of the Metals Division at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, expressed caution, saying, “While there are signs of recovery in some demand sectors, it is necessary to determine whether the recovery trend will continue due to factors such as the worsening export environment.”

According to the ministry, crude steel production in October-December is forecast at 20.67 mnt, up 2.3% y-o-y and 2.9% from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, total steel demand is projected at 18.49 mnt, unchanged from the same period last year but up 1.8% from July-September.

Demand for ordinary steel is estimated at 14.54 mnt, down by 0.9% y-o-y. The ministry also expects domestic construction demand to increase by around 2% from the same period last year, while manufacturing demand is projected to decline by around 1%. However, automotive demand is expected to remain firm, while industrial machinery is showing signs of recovery. Along with sustained demand in construction-related sectors, these trends indicate some stabilisation in domestic steel demand.

However, export demand remains under pressure. Ordinary steel export demand in October-December is expected to be 5.07 mnt, down by 3% y-o-y. The export environment remains challenging amid growing protectionism in steel trade and continued high steel export volumes from China.

Note: This article is published as part of a content exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.