Indonesia’s revision of coal benchmark prices reveals regional demand patterns

• Indonesian HBA prices rise across grades
• Outlook constrained due to supply, transition pressures

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has announced its revised Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), or domestic coal index, for the first half of October 2025, showing upward adjustments across all thermal coal grades.

The revision underscores shifting regional demand patterns, evolving buyer preferences, and inventory management strategies that are shaping the coal trade. These updates serve as a key benchmark for both domestic producers and international buyers, providing critical guidance amid global market uncertainties.

High-calorific coal prices strengthen 

Prices for high-grade thermal coal (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) surged by 3.33% to $106.94/t compared to the second half of September. The rise reflects strong buying interest in high-efficiency fuels that generate lower emissions per unit of energy, a factor increasingly valued by environmentally conscious markets. This preference continues to enhance producer margins and reinforces demand for premium coal in regions striving for cleaner energy usage without compromising on output.

Mid-calorific value coal prices up slightly

The benchmark mid-range coal (5,300 kcal/kg GAR, HBA-I) recorded a 0.68% increase to $64.84/t. The modest gain highlights strengthening electricity demand across Asia, where utilities are securing stable mid-grade supply for power generation. Seasonal consumption patterns, coupled with steady industrial activity, have contributed to this incremental uptick.

Low-calorific coal continues uptrend

Lower-grade Indonesian coal also continued its upward trajectory. HBA-II (4,100 kcal/kg GAR) rose 1.26% to $43.12/t, while HBA-III (3,400 kcal/kg GAR) gained 0.52% to $32.95/t against the second half of September. These increases reflect sustained demand from price-sensitive buyers, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where affordability and fuel flexibility remain critical for balancing supply portfolios.

Industry perspective

October’s HBA revision reflects a steady market, with Indonesian coal crucial for India and China as utilities stock up before peak demand. Stable prices aid contract negotiations, though global supply risks keep buyers cautious.

Outlook

Indonesia’s HBA is expected to hold firm in early October 2025, supported by Asian demand and high-grade coal preference, though oversupply and energy transition pressures may cap gains.