Indonesia’s mid-Jul’25 HBA coal index prices show diverging trends in shifting global market

• High-CV coal prices dip while mid-CV witnesses gains 
• Export outlook uncertain due to demand shifts in China, India

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has released the updated Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), the domestic benchmark price index for thermal coal, for the second half of July 2025. The newly announced figures reveal a split in price trajectories across different coal grades, shaped by ongoing changes in international market dynamics, including shifts in demand in key importing countries.

High-calorific coal prices plummet 

The benchmark price for high-calorific value (high-CV) coal (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) has fallen sharply by 9%, settling at $97.65/t compared to first half of July. This marks the lowest point since the HBA derivative series commenced in March.

The decline is primarily driven by sluggish international demand, especially from major markets such as China and India, where utilities are adjusting procurement strategies amid high inventories and evolving fuel mixes.

Mid-CV coal gains on renewed demand

In contrast, mid-calorific value (mid-CV) coal (5,300 kcal/kg GAR) under the HBA-I index posted a significant 6.2% increase, reaching $75.94/t compared to the first half of July. This marks a notable reversal from earlier flat trends, indicating a strengthening demand profile, particularly from buyers in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

The price recovery reflects a growing preference for mid-CV coal due to its cost-efficiency and energy output balance, making it an attractive option amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.

Low-CV coal prices show mixed pattern

Price movements in the lower calorific value (low-CV) segments showed divergent trends, underlining unpredictable market behaviour. As compared to the first half of this month, the HBA-II price for 4,100 kcal/kg GAR coal declined by 2.8% to $48.35/t, as demand softened from certain regional buyers.

Conversely, the HBA-III benchmark for 3,400 kcal/kg GAR coal, representing Indonesia’s lowest export grade, edged up compared to the first half of July by 0.36% to $36/t. This minor increase reflects stable demand from domestic and regional utilities, which continue to prioritise low-CV coal due to its affordability and availability.

Outlook

Indonesia’s thermal coal prices in July reflected varied market dynamics: high-CV prices eased due to soft global demand, mid-CV strengthened on rising interest, and low-CV remained uncertain amid changing regional preferences. The market outlook is cautiously balanced, with stable supply and moderate demand shaping current pricing.