- Rice production higher than the previous year
- Import halt may reduce market opportunities for overseas suppliers
Indonesia does not expect to import rice in 2026 despite potential production risks from the El Niño weather phenomenon, an Agriculture Ministry official said on Monday.
Rice production projected at 28.71 mnt
National rice production for January-September 2026 is projected at 28.71 million tonnes, up from the same period last year, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
Agriculture Minister for Agricultural Production Development said the higher production projection supports the expectation that Indonesia will not need to import rice in 2026.
Bulog stocks stand at 5.18 mnt
State logistics agency Bulog held 5.18 million tonnes of rice stocks as of July 2, according to government data.
The projected production and existing stock position are supporting the government’s expectation of no rice imports in 2026.
Government prepares for El Niño-related risks
To prepare for potential dry conditions linked to El Niño, the government has deployed more than 80,158 water pumps to farmer groups. The pumps are intended to help farmer’s access available water sources in drought-affected areas.
The Agriculture Ministry is also upgrading irrigation networks to reduce water losses and improve the use of available water supplies.
The government is promoting drought-tolerant and shorter-duration rice varieties as part of its production measures. Some varieties can be harvested in 97–98 days, compared with up to 120 days for conventional varieties.
The government is also using a Crop Calendar to help farmers adjust planting schedules based on weather conditions.
Import halt may affect major rice suppliers
Indonesia’s decision to keep rice import channels closed in 2026 is likely to reduce market opportunities for overseas suppliers. Myanmar, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand were among the key suppliers to Indonesia’s private sector in 2025. The halt in imports could limit export opportunities for these suppliers, while the extent of the impact will depend on their ability to redirect available rice volumes to other markets.
Outlook
Indonesia’s 2026 rice trade outlook is likely to remain focused on domestic availability, with projected production and existing Bulog stocks supporting the government’s decision to keep imports closed. The policy could reduce export opportunities for major suppliers while encouraging greater reliance on domestic rice supplies.
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