Rainfall during the opening fortnight of India’s southwest monsoon season, which coincides with the start of kharif sowing, was around 32% below normal, while persistent western disturbances slowed the monsoon’s advance across parts of central and northern India despite active conditions over southern states, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Although the IMD has revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) from an earlier estimate of 92%, agricultural markets are increasingly focused less on the headline seasonal forecast than on rainfall distribution during this critical planting period.
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