- Exports in Oct’25 rise 15% m-o-m to around 2.17 mnt
- China’s iron ore imports in Sep-Oct reach historic highs
- Pellet exports decrease on higher domestic realisations
Morning Brief: Indian iron ore and pellet exports rose 15% m-o-m from 1.89 million tonnes (mnt) in September 2025 to 2.17 mnt (1.96 fines/lumps and 0.21 mnt pellets) in October, as per provisional data maintained with BigMint.
Iron ore and pellet exports plunged 38% y-o-y to 10.11 mnt in the first half of FY’26. However, a sharp m-o-m rebound in September was observed after shipments had dropped to a three-year low of 0.83 mnt in August. With October exports hitting a five-month high, it may be said that the market has witnessed a gradual rebound from the lows seen in July and August.
China was the largest importer in October at 1.74 mnt followed by Malaysia at 0.11 mnt.
Top exporters
The major iron ore exporting companies were Vedanta (0.55 mnt), Rungta Mines (0.29 mnt) and Grewal Minerals and Metals (0.17 mnt). The leading pellet exporters from India were AM/NS India (0.08 mnt) and Lloyds Metals & Energy (0.06 mnt).
Why did exports edge up in Oct’25?
Increased shipments to China: India’s iron ore exports to China increased to 1.68 mnt in October against 1.63 mnt in September. China’s total imports in September reached 116.33 mnt, a 10.6% increase m-o-m. Imports totalled 917.69 mnt during January-September 2025, broadly stable y-o-y.
China’s iron ore imports shot up in September as full production resumed at many mills after the military parade. Strong buying sustained in October with total shipments expected to reach over 113 mnt. Firm prices since July have encouraged suppliers to channel higher shipments but strong demand even amidst decline in steel production reflects a firm faith in the underlying fundamentals of the steel market and increasing demand from the manufacturing, transport and technology sectors.
It also reflects the strategic objective of the Chinese authorities to stockpile critical resources to be able to exert control over pricing and market movements. However, India’s pellet exports declined to 0.21 mnt in October, reversing September’s recovery, as higher domestic prices put a brake on exports.
Firm iron ore prices: Fe62% iron ore fines prices in China rose to $109/t CFR due to post-holiday restocking. Concerns over sintering and production cuts eased, but uncertainty around talks between an Australian miner and CMRG kept traders divided. Sentiments improved post the US-ASEAN Summit and easing US-China trade tensions.
India’s export prices for Fe57% grade ore witnessed a recovery since September encouraging suppliers to cash in on the spike. However, toward end-October global prices again fell to $105-107/t CFR on high steel stocks and weak margins.
Outlook
China’s November iron ore import volumes may decrease somewhat from the historically high monthly imports seen in September and October. Global prices at current levels are sufficient inducement for the leading low-cost miners to keep shipping higher volumes to China, although steel production will likely remain lower by around 3% y-o-y in 2025.
Margin pressure and resultant cost control measures adopted by the Chinese mills always work in favour of Indian iron ore. If prices hold at current levels, shipments may remain strong in November. Pellet exports may be restrained, however, due to higher domestic prices. But some domestic pellet players are rapidly expanding capacity and are interested in exploring newer export prospects.
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