- Buyers turn cautious amid subdued Chinese steel demand
- Results of west coast tender may shape near-term sentiment
Indian iron ore export prices edged down w-o-w amid limited market activity, with a few trades and tenders recorded. Chinese imported iron ore prices dipped, dragging Indian export values lower. While buying interest from Chinese mills persisted, most negotiations remained pending, as buyers assessed the potential for wider discounts in November shipments.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index fell by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w to $71/t FOB east coast on 6 November. Meanwhile, the index stood stable w-o-w at $81/t CFR China. Around 55,000 t of Fe 57% iron ore fines were heard sold at $71/t FOB Paradip, while a few other deals were heard under negotiation.
Exporters mentioned that discounts for Fe 57% fines averaged 15-16% against the benchmark index.
Market scenario
According to a trader, “Some buying activity was seen earlier in the week, as prices held steady, but most deals remain under negotiation. Buyers are cautious, preferring to wait for clearer signals from the Chinese market before committing to new cargoes.”
Export offers for Fe 57% fines were largely stable, with discounts averaging around 15-16% against the benchmark index. Bidding for traders’ cargoes was heard above $80/t CFR, while miners’ cargoes attracted offers above $82/t CFR.
A few trades were concluded at the start of the week, but overall volumes remained limited. An export tender from the west coast was also heard to have been floated during this period, with participants awaiting results to gauge near-term sentiment.
Sellers from Odisha and southern India maintained steady offers, citing firm freight costs and limited spot availability. “There is some resistance to reducing prices further since supply is not too loose, but buyer interest is clearly thinning,” said a coastal miner.
Market participants noted that global cues were soft, with steel demand in China yet to recover and import appetite appearing low. “If global indices weaken further, Indian offers could come under mild pressure again next week,” commented another trader.
Chinese spot prices soften w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index fell by $3/t w-o-w to $105/t CFR China on 6 November. Prices declined amid sluggish trading and soft fundamentals, weighed down by narrowing steel mill margins and higher coal costs. Weak earnings at mills and the availability of alternative supplies provided buyers with greater leverage, prompting sellers to extend deeper discounts to stay competitive. Overall, market sentiment remained cautious.
DCE iron ore futures drop: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the Jan 2026 contract closed at RMB 777.5/t ($113/t) on 6 November, down RMB 22/t w-o-w.
Rationale
- One (1) major deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window, which was taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received eleven (11) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and five (5) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 138.4 mnt on 6 November, inching up by 2.79 mnt w-o-w from 30 October, as per data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
Indian low-grade fines could see mild downward adjustments if global price weakness persists, with discounts expected to widen marginally. Exporters are likely to remain cautious while monitoring overseas market cues.
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