Indian mills resume rebar export offers, bearish sentiments weigh down offers

Indian mills have resumed rebar export offers after a gap of over a month. SteelMint’s price assessment for the BF-route rebar (10-40mm, B500B) was assessed at around $800-820/t CFR Hong Kong on actual weight (AW) basis. However, no export booking has been heard so far at the current offers.

Indian rebar export prices fell sharply by around $110/t on a monthly basis, as per data maintained with SteelMint.

Notably, Indian mills were not active in the rebar exports market of late due to better realisations in the domestic market. However, the recent price corrections in the domestic market and the approaching monsoon season in July may slow down construction steel demand in the country.

Factors behind resumption in offers –

• Global rebar export offers continue downtrend: Turkey-based mills are learned to have dropped rebar export offers by around $25/t w-o-w amid a continuous fall in the country’s imported scrap prices due to the absence of buyers and steelmakers from the market. Currently, rebar export offers are assessed at $890/t FOB Turkey.
• Fall in Indian domestic rebar offers: SteelMint’s BF-route rebar (12-32mm) price assessment was recorded at INR 71,500/t exw-Mumbai on 29 April 2022, a sharp fall of INR 1,000/t, w-o-w. Weak demand in the domestic market contributed to the fall in prices. Also, mills are learned to have lowered offers for May deliveries.
• Plunge in global scrap, billets prices: Offers edged down as the imported scrap market in Turkey remained quiet. SteelMint’s assessment for the US-origin HMS 1&2 (80:20) is now at $540-545/t CFR levels, down by further $20-25/t w-o-w. On the other hand, SteelMint’s bi-weekly price assessment for Indian billets exports (150*150mm, 3SP/4SP, BOF route) stood at around $750/t FOB on 2 May 2022, stable w-o-w and a decrease of around $10/t, m-o-m.

India’s rebar exports rose sharply by 60.68% in FY22 (April 2021-March 2022) to 1.02 mnt as against 0.64 mnt in the same period last year, as per data recently released by customs. Hong Kong was the largest importer with 0.51 mnt, followed by Singapore with 0.22 mnt. Also, exports rose by 25% m-o-m in March to 0.05 mnt as against 0.04 mnt in February.