- Elevated shipping risks, freight volatility weigh on exports
- Persistent uncertainty clouds near-term export outlook
Indian HRC export activity remained largely subdued during the week 31 March-7 April 2026, as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continued to weigh on trade flows. Heightened security risks along critical corridors such as the Red Sea–Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz led to widespread vessel diversions, longer transit times, and a sharp increase in freight and war-risk insurance costs, significantly undermining export competitiveness across major destinations.
Amid elevated freight-related uncertainty, limited logistical visibility, and ongoing operational challenges, market participants largely adopted a cautious wait-and-watch approach, keeping overall export activity muted.
HRC exports to Europe: Indicative Indian HRC export offers to the EU were heard at $680-690/t CFR Antwerp, marking a sharp increase of around $60-70/t compared to levels around $620/t seen before the Iran conflict erupted. However, no bookings were concluded within the assessment window. Ongoing security risks across key maritime routes continued to disrupt trade flows, as more vessels were diverted from the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor to the longer Cape of Good Hope route, extending transit times by 15-20 days. This has led to higher freight and war-risk insurance costs, undermining export competitiveness and reinforcing a cautious wait-and-watch approach among market participants.
European buyers largely preferred domestic material amid persistent uncertainty, while import volumes into the EU remained limited due to elevated logistics costs, regulatory pressures, and weak underlying demand. Domestic market activity was further dampened by the Easter holidays, with many participants adopting a cautious stance. Although mills were reported to be largely sold out for May shipments and well booked for June, buyers refrained from aggressive restocking given sufficient inventories and uncertain demand conditions, keeping overall market activity muted.
HRC exports to Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained absent w-o-w, as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent security risks across key shipping corridors continued to disrupt trade flows. The Strait of Hormuz, handling a significant share of global oil and LNG trade, has emerged as a major flashpoint, with rising missile and drone threats, along with attacks on merchant vessels, severely impacting shipping operations. This has triggered a sharp increase in freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums, effectively eroding export viability.
Shipping lines and insurers have adopted a cautious stance, with several vessels rerouting to avoid the corridor and some carriers suspending operations in high-risk areas altogether. As a result, trade flows have been materially affected, with heightened freight uncertainty and limited near-term visibility weighing heavily on market sentiment.
A Middle-East based source indicated that “the ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted cargo movements, particularly to and from the UAE, with no visible improvement so far. The route remains largely inaccessible, restricting both inbound and outbound shipments and severely constraining regional trade flows. Consequently, market activity has come to a near standstill, leading to a suspension of most offers to the Middle East. Earlier booked March shipments have also been postponed amid continued uncertainty around shipping and insurance conditions.”
Meanwhile, the SHFE May 2026 HRC contract edged down by RMB 39/t ($6/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,262/t ($475/t) on 7 April compared with RMB 3,301/t ($481/t) on 31 March, reflecting relatively weaker futures sentiment.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain subdued in the near term, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continue to push up freight costs, extend transit times, and limit trade visibility. Overall market sentiment is likely to stay cautious, with exporters maintaining a wait-and-watch approach until shipping conditions stabilise and geopolitical uncertainties begin to ease.
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