Indian billet export trade subdued amid volatile Chinese steel futures

The Indian billet exports market has seen less trade activities in the last one week amid volatile Chinese futures and bid-offer disparities. A couple of billet export tenders for around 50,000 tonnes (t), floated last week for 150mm (BOF route, 4SP/5SP), remained inconclusive.

However, a few deals were heard recently:

• A steelmaker concluded an export tender for 30,000 t of steel billets (150*150mm, 3sp/4sp) at $647-649/t on FOB basis. The shipment is scheduled for Apr’22, according to sources. The tender was floated against 100% advance payment terms.

• An export tender for 20,000 t of steel billets (90*90mm, C20MMn Gr. A) also got concluded at $660-665/t on FOB basis towards the closing of last week by a state-owned company too. The shipment is scheduled for Apr’22.

SteelMint’s bi-weekly price assessment for Indian billets exports (150*150mm, 3SP/4SP, BOF route) stood at $650/t FOB on 16 Feb’22, up marginally by around $2/t w-o-w.

SHFE rebar futures remain volatile

Chinese steel futures witnessed a sharp drop over the last few days owing to local authorities’ action on iron ore price speculations which made buyers vigilant. Policy uncertainty is making buyers anxious over the “futures” course of action. The market seems to be thus waiting for more clarity before taking any trade decision.

According to data maintained with SteelMint, China’s SHFE rebar futures contract for May’22 delivery closed at RMB 4,832/t ($762/t) on 16 Feb’22, witnessing a w-o-w decrease of RMB 11/t ($2/t). However, it witnessed a sharp rise of RMB 104/t ($16/t) d-o-d.

SteelMint’s assessment of imported billets (150*150mm, 3SP) into China are at around $690-695/t, CFR China, up around $2/t, w-o-w.

Meanwhile, steel billet prices in China’s Tangshan remained stable at RMB 4,650/t ($733/t) on 16 Feb’22, inclusive of 13% VAT. However, the same increased by RMB 20/t ($3/t), w-o-w.

• SE Asia import billets prices largely stable: SteelMint’s assessment of imported billets (150*150mm, 3SP) into the Philippines currently stands at around $693/t, CFR Manila, up marginally by around $3/t, w-o-w.

Outlook

India’s billet export prices are expected to remain on the higher side on the back of high domestic realization. However, at the same time, buyers want some more clarity from the Chinese market side.