- Vedanta Power Q2 sales rise 26%, NTPC’s generation increases 13%
- Strong demand, 20% fall in Sept hydro output lift thermal requirement
India’s major thermal generators are reporting strong operating growth as unusually high electricity demand and weaker hydro availability increase the power system’s requirement for dispatchable generation.
Vedanta Power reported its highest-ever quarterly power sales of 5,593 MU in Q2 FY27, up 26% y-o-y from 4,433 MU, while H1 sales increased 32% to 10,817 MU.
NTPC recorded a similar broader trend. India’s largest generator produced 117.9 BU during Q2, up 12.9% from 104.4 BU a year earlier.
The company-level performances coincide with an unusually strong September for India’s thermal fleet. National generation increased 11.1% y-o-y, but coal-fired output rose faster at 13.6% as hydro generation fell almost 20%.
Vedanta records strongest-ever quarterly sales
Vedanta’s growth was led by Meenakshi Energy and a sharp operational recovery at Jharsuguda.
Meenakshi’s H1 sales increased 160% to 2,820 MU, reflecting operations from its expanded 1,000 MW capacity base.
Jharsuguda sales nearly tripled as plant availability improved to 98% from 43% a year earlier. Talwandi Sabo provides a cleaner indication of underlying growth from an established asset, with Q2 sales increasing 6%.
Vedanta’s 26% increase therefore cannot be attributed entirely to stronger electricity demand. Capacity expansion and improved availability contributed substantially. But the additional available generation arrived during an exceptionally favourable period for dispatchable power.
NTPC generation rises nearly 13%
NTPC’s operating performance reinforces the broader trend.
Q2 generation increased 12.9% to 117.9 BU, while power-trading volume rose 22% to 15.06 BU. Coal dispatch from NTPC’s captive mines increased 28.5% to 11.90 mnt.
Vedanta and NTPC therefore provide different evidence of the same trend: Vedanta benefited from additional capacity and improved availability, while NTPC’s much larger existing portfolio generated significantly more electricity.
September explains why thermal availability mattered
India’s September generation mix provides the context.
India generated an additional 17.44 TWh compared with September 2025. Coal contributed 13.55 TWh, or 77.7% of the net increase, lifting its generation share from 63.4% to 64.9%.
This happened despite RES generation increasing 24.6%. The principal counterweight was hydro, which fell 19.9%. Hydro output deteriorated further as September progressed, averaging only 548 MU/day during the final ten days versus 750 MU/day during 1-10 September.
Record demand increases value of availability
Peak demand met reached 269.06 GW, up 17.4% y-o-y, while average daily maximum demand increased 13.4% to 246.81 GW. Demand exceeded 250 GW on 11 days compared with none in September 2025.
The combination of higher demand and weaker hydro substantially increased the value of available dispatchable capacity.
IEX reflected the same tightening. September purchase bids surged to 30.77 TWh from 6.35 TWh a year earlier while sell bids fell 31.2%. Average daily MCP consequently more than doubled to INR 6.92/kWh from INR 3.31/kWh.
For generators with merchant or otherwise available capacity, September therefore provided substantially stronger market signals than a year earlier.
Adani Power had already shown a similar direction in Q1 FY27, when generation reached a record 31 BU and PLF increased to 77.9% from 67%. Its Q2 results are yet to be released, preventing a like-for-like comparison with Vedanta and NTPC.
Higher generation draws down coal stocks
Stronger thermal utilisation has come at a cost.
Power plants received 70.80 mnt of coal during September but consumed 78.65 mnt, leaving a 7.85 mnt deficit. Receipts remained below consumption on every day of the month.
Stocks consequently fell 27% from 29.12 mnt at end-August to 21.25 mnt at end-September, while critical-stock plants increased from 51 to 84.
Existing coal inventories effectively helped finance September’s higher thermal generation.
More thermal capacity is meanwhile becoming available. JSW Energy crossed 15 GW of operational capacity in September, including 5,958 MW of thermal capacity, while its 3,200 MW Salboni thermal project is under development.
The government’s direction requiring 112 captive coal-based generating stations of 50 MW and above to maximise generation through December could provide another source of thermal electricity during Q4.
BigMint assessment
Vedanta Power’s record quarter and NTPC’s nearly 13% generation growth provide corporate-level evidence of a broader shift in India’s power market.
The striking feature is that this is happening alongside rapid renewable growth. September RES generation increased 24.6%, yet coal supplied almost 78% of India’s incremental generation because demand surged while hydro output fell nearly 20%.
For generators, this increases the value of availability. Vedanta’s Jharsuguda plant illustrates the point: improving availability from 43% to 98% allowed sales to nearly triple just as India’s electricity market tightened sharply.
For coal, however, higher thermal utilisation creates another challenge. September burn exceeded receipts by 7.85 mnt and power-plant stocks fell 27%.
The immediate Q4 question is therefore whether coal production and evacuation can rebuild inventories fast enough to sustain elevated thermal utilisation.
If demand remains strong and hydro weak, India’s renewable and thermal fleets may continue growing simultaneously with coal plants increasingly providing the dispatchable generation required when electricity demand and renewable availability do not align.
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