- Strong demand at lower levels prevents price breakdown despite rising supplies
- Rising arrivals and export slowdown likely to limit upside
India’s turmeric market is showing clear signs of strength, with prices holding firm despite rising arrivals across key producing belts. NCDEX turmeric futures are trading near INR 14,800 per quintal, stabilising after a sharp correction from INR 18,500, while spot prices in Erode remain steady at INR 14,200-14,300. In Maharashtra mandis such as Nanded, average prices are hovering around INR 13,200, reflecting stable demand across grades. Market participants indicate that arrivals have increased across Nizamabad, Sangli, Basmat, and Erode, yet the key observation is that prices are not breaking lower. This clearly suggests that buying interest is absorbing fresh supply, and the market is establishing a strong base rather than weakening.
The underlying support is coming from tight carry-forward stocks, which are significantly lower compared with previous seasons. Even though 2025-26 production is estimated higher at around 90 lakh bags (vs 82.5 lakh bags last year), the market is currently driven by available supply rather than total output. Additionally, localised yield losses and quality concerns in parts of Maharashtra are restricting the effective supply in the early phase of arrivals. On the demand side, domestic consumption remains steady, while exports are providing mixed signals. Shipments to nearby markets such as Bangladesh continue, but broader export demand has been impacted by West Asia geopolitical disruptions, which have increased freight costs and slowed buying interest. However, the critical takeaway for the market is that even under weak export conditions and rising arrivals, prices are holding firm, reinforcing the underlying strength.
From a futures perspective, the market is transitioning from correction to accumulation phase. Prices have already corrected significantly and are now stabilising, with open interest rising alongside prices, indicating fresh buying at lower levels. The key level for the market is clearly INR 14,000-14,200, which has emerged as a strong demand zone. On the upside, INR 15,000 remains immediate resistance, while INR 15,500 is the decisive breakout level. Unless this level is taken out, the market is likely to remain in consolidation, but importantly, downside remains protected.
Overall, turmeric is not in a bearish phase-it is in a controlled consolidation with strong downside support. The market is expected to trade in the INR 14,000-15,200 range in the near term, with buying interest likely to emerge on dips. For traders and stockists, the strategy is clearly accumulate on declines rather than chase rallies, as the risk-reward currently favours the buying side. A sustained move above INR 15,500 will act as a trigger for the next leg of upward momentum.
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