- Bid-offer gaps lead to cautious stance
- Project segment sees limited bookings
India’s trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices declined w-o-w, driven by weak demand, cautious market sentiment, and a monsoon-led slowdown in trade momentum. Buyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach due to the prevailing disparity between bids and offers, while distributors aimed to offload previously procured high-cost inventories.
Trade-level BF rebar prices declined by INR 800/tonne (t) ($9/t) w-o-w to INR 48,400/t ($562/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 18 July 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
In the projects segment, prices declined further to INR 46,000-47,000/t ($534-546/t) FOR Mumbai. Limited orders were placed amid expectations of further price corrections. Mills continued to face challenges in securing bookings due to stiff market competition.
Factors behind market dynamics
1. IF rebar prices stay range-bound w-o-w: IF rebar trade prices remained largely range-bound this week, with a marginal increase in some markets amid improved inquiries. However, order bookings remained subdued despite trade discounts, as buyers continued need-based procurement. Inventory levels stayed elevated at 12-15 days, keeping market sentiment weak. Additionally, prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, having possibly reached a bottom. IF rebar prices dropped by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 43,400/t ($504/t) exw-Mumbai as on 18 July.
The BF-IF rebar price gap narrowed w-o-w to around INR 5,000-5,500/t ($58-64/t) in Mumbai. IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share in India.
2. Raw material prices rise w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index rose by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 5,000/tonne (t) ($58/t) ex-mines on 12 July 2025. Notably, deals for around 400,000 t of iron ore (fines and lumps) were recorded by BigMint in Odisha, concluded by merchant sellers with larger stocks of mid-grade fines material. Around 750,000 t were traded last week, indicating a sharp drop this week.
High-grade fines were offered at INR 5,000-5,500/t ($58-64/t) ex-mines, amid limited availability. Meanwhile, buyers were cautious regarding trades amid ongoing transportation disruptions due to heavy rain.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices rose by $2/t w-o-w to $194/t CNF Paradip.
Outlook
Market participants expect further downward corrections in BF rebar prices, with a potential bottom likely to form in the near term. Procurement activity remains subdued as buyers adopt a cautious stance, weighed down by persistent weak demand.
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