India: Tomato prices more than double as El Niño and weather stress hit September crop

  • Tomato prices more than doubled in a month as heat stress and crop disease hit production
  • Falling arrivals in southern India tightened supplies, while Nashik inflows offered limited relief

Tomato markets across India are witnessing sharp price variations as adverse weather conditions affect production in key southern growing regions. According to the Market participants, higher September temperatures, deficient rainfall and tomato leaf curl virus have reduced crop productivity, tightening supplies and pushing wholesale and retail prices higher.

Weather stress disrupts tomato production in southern India

Temperatures in Karnataka’s Kolar region reportedly reached 38°C against the normal 30°C for September. Heat stress, water scarcity and increased leaf curl virus incidence have affected fruit setting, fruit size and crop quality. Lower prices in previous months also prompted some farmers to reduce crop-protection applications, further affecting crop health.

Wholesale prices surge amid declining market arrivals

According to Agmarknet data cited in the report, tomato modal prices at Kolar APMC increased to INR 1,500 per quintal from INR 800 on September 10. At Palamaner APMC in Andhra Pradesh, prices rose to INR 3,300 per quintal from INR 1,500 a month earlier. In contrast, Nashik APMC prices declined to INR 1,250 per quintal from INR 2,100, reflecting stronger availability in Maharashtra.

Reduced arrivals tighten supplies across major markets

Tomato arrivals across the reported markets fell below 1,200 tonnes during the latest week, compared with around 1,700 tonnes a month earlier. At Palamaner, arrivals declined to less than 10 tonnes from approximately 60 tonnes a month ago. The supply shortage has pushed retail prices to around INR 50/kg in Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, compared with INR 20–25/kg a fortnight earlier. Delhi prices remained comparatively lower at INR 34/kg.

Nashik supplies offer limited price relief

Higher prices in southern markets have encouraged Maharashtra growers to redirect tomatoes from Nashik to Kolar. These additional supplies have moderated price increases, although they have not fully offset the production shortfall in southern growing regions. The extent of further price movement will depend on the consistency of arrivals from Maharashtra and the recovery of local production.

Outlook

Tomato prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term if water shortages, crop disease and deficient rainfall continue to constrain supplies. The reported 13% South-West monsoon deficit has added to production risks across southern India. However, improved arrivals from Nashik and other producing regions could moderate further increases. A sustained price correction will depend on crop recovery and improved market arrivals.
Tomato prices at key southern markets have more than doubled in a month as high temperatures, water shortages and crop disease disrupt production. Falling arrivals in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have tightened supplies, while Nashik inflows are providing limited relief to southern markets.