- Buyers focus on requirement-based deals
- Monsoon induces cautious sentiment in market
India’s thermal coal inventories at major ports increased marginally by 0.6% w-o-w to 15.61 mnt in week 22 from 15.53 mnt in week 21, indicating continued comfortable supply conditions despite mixed evacuation trends across ports. Market participants stated that industrial consumers largely maintained requirement-based procurement, while traders remained cautious about building fresh positions ahead of the monsoon season.
Among major stockholders, Adani Enterprise’s inventory increased 3% w-o-w to 4.03 mnt, reinforcing its position as the largest inventory holder. In contrast, Agarwal Coal’s stock declined 7.2% to 0.74 mnt, reflecting steady cargo movement and selective replenishment.
Mixed port movements reflect regional trends
Port inventory movements remained mixed during the week. Significant increases were recorded at Krishnapatnam (+54.1%), Mundra (+16.3%), Kakinada (+14.4%) and Tuna (+11.5%), largely due to fresh arrivals and slower evacuation.
Meanwhile, inventories declined at several east coast ports including Gangavaram (-18.8%), Karaikal (-21.7%), Dhamra (-10.9%), Vizag (-5.4%) and Paradip (-4.4%), indicating relatively better cargo movement and lower inflows.
Market participants noted that inventory changes were primarily linked to vessel arrivals and regional logistics rather than any significant shift in underlying demand.
Imported coal demand remains subdued
Imported coal buying interest remained weak despite firm international coal prices. Participants stated that high replacement costs, elevated freight rates and comfortable domestic coal availability continued discouraging fresh import bookings.
South African coal enquiries remained limited, while Indonesian coal attracted selective interest due to tighter availability and regulatory uncertainty. However, buyers largely avoided aggressive spot purchases and preferred meeting immediate requirements only.
Domestic supply keeps market comfortable
Frequent CIL auctions, adequate domestic availability and reasonable auction premiums continued supporting comfortable supply conditions. Buyers remained focused on immediate consumption needs as sponge iron, steel and cement sectors adopted a cautious approach ahead of the rainy season.
Market participants indicated that unless downstream industrial activity improves meaningfully, procurement is likely to remain selective despite stable market fundamentals.
Outlook
Thermal coal market sentiment is expected to remain balanced in the near term. Comfortable inventories and adequate domestic supply are likely to curb aggressive buying, although logistics constraints remain a concern. Meanwhile, ongoing global uncertainties are expected to keep freight rates and imported coal prices elevated. As the monsoon season approaches, buyers are likely to continue with requirement-based procurement strategies.
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