- Festive lull, tepid industrial activity leads to cautious market
- Seaborne tags rise on restocking demand from China, SE Asia
The Indian portside market for Indonesian-origin thermal coal remained stable during the week ending 24 October 2025, as the combined impact of a seasonal slowdown, festive holidays, and subdued industrial consumption continued to weigh on buying sentiment.
Market activity remained stagnant as several end-user industries, including cement, sponge iron, and small-scale power producers, operated at reduced capacity through the festive period.
This led to limited spot transactions and stable price trends across major west and east coast ports. Traders and importers also preferred to hold back fresh procurement, anticipating stronger and clearer demand signals post-Diwali.
Prices hold firm across grades, freights dip
Price movements across key Indonesian grades remained flat through the week, underscoring a balanced demand-supply dynamic. As per BigMint assessments, the 5000 GAR grade held steady at INR 7,100/t at Kandla and INR 7,050/t at Vizag, while the 4200 GAR grade was assessed at INR 5,800/t at Kandla and INR 5,700/t at Vizag.
Similarly, the 3400 GAR grade remained unchanged at INR 4,400/t at Navlakhi. The stability in prices can be attributed to ample stock availability and weak procurement appetite, which together kept both buyers and sellers on the sidelines.
Freights were largely stable, supporting the market’s steady tone. Supramax freights on the Indonesia (East Kalimantan)-India (Navlakhi) route declined slightly by $0.69/dmt w-o-w to $15.50/dmt.
Port inventories ease marginally on slower arrivals
Portside thermal coal inventories in India witnessed a marginal decline of 0.7% w-o-w to 13.17 million tonnes (mnt) in Week 42 from 13.26 mnt in Week 41.
The slight drawdown reflected slower vessel arrivals at key west coast ports, particularly Kandla and Navlakhi, amid weaker cargo bookings from Indonesia. Despite the decline, stock levels remained comfortably high, suggesting that domestic supply at ports is adequate to meet short-term industrial requirements.
The minor reduction also indicates that traders are maintaining moderate stock positions to manage liquidity and avoid price risk, given the current low turnover in the physical market.
Seaborne prices edge higher on regional buying support
In contrast, the seaborne Indonesian coal market saw minor price upticks driven by regional dynamics. The 5800 GAR grade rose by $1.18/t w-o-w to $78.36/t, the 4200 GAR grade climbed to $45.35/t, and the 3400 GAR grade increased to $31.71/t.
The mild uptrend was supported by renewed procurement interest from China and Southeast Asian buyers, particularly as utilities sought to replenish stocks ahead of the winter heating season.
Market outlook
The Indian portside thermal coal market is set for a gradual recovery from early November, driven by post-Diwali industrial resumption, winter restocking, and higher power demand. However, ample inventories and steady seaborne supply are expected to keep prices stable and range-bound in the near term.
Leave a Reply