- Sellers withhold offers amid expectations of further hikes
- Lower-grade coal dips as ceramics producers halt operations
Indian portside prices of Indonesian-origin thermal coal registered stability on 13 March 2026 after early gain, driven by uncertainty surrounding potential Indonesian export policies and heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The lack of clarity regarding export approvals from Indonesia, combined with broader global uncertainties, has created a volatile trading environment.
Market participants indicated that sellers adopted a cautious approach, with some withholding offers in anticipation of further price increases, while buyers remained reluctant to accept elevated price levels. As a result, market activity was limited, with transactions largely confined to bulk purchases when material is available. Prices were largely stable compared to earlier in the week.
Price updates
Thermal coal prices at major Indian ports continued to strengthen and trade at nearly three-year highs. According to BigMint’s assessment as of 13 March, prices of 5,000 GAR coal increased by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 9,400/t at Kandla and INR 9,300/t at Vizag, reflecting firm seller sentiment and limited spot availability.
Similarly, prices of 4,200 GAR coal rose by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 7,700/t at Kandla and INR 7,600/t at Vizag. In contrast, prices of lower-grade 3,400 GAR coal registered a marginal decline of INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 5,850/t at Navlakhi. Demand conditions also remained mixed across coal grades. Market participants highlighted that demand for 3,400 GAR coal has softened due to temporary shutdowns in the ceramic industry, partly linked to shortages in propane gas availability, which has curtailed consumption from key industrial users.
Stock build-up at ports, slight dip at power plants
Portside thermal coal inventories across India recorded a modest increase of 1.6% w-o-w to 13.35 million tonnes (mnt) in the week ended 6 March, up from 13.14 mnt in the previous week. The rise was mainly driven by stock build-ups at select west coast ports amid steady cargo arrivals.
Meanwhile, coal inventories at Indian thermal power plants declined slightly to 57.8 mnt as of 12 March 2026, equivalent to approximately 19 days of consumption. Despite the overall comfortable national stock position, supply concerns persist at certain plants. Currently, 18 power plants are operating with critical coal stock levels, including eight plants dependent on domestic coal, six designed to use imported coal, and four running on washery rejects.
Indonesian benchmark prices reinforce bullish sentiment
Indonesian benchmark coal prices also moved higher during the week, supporting the firm sentiment in the international market. Prices of 5,800 GAR coal increased by $1.5-2/t w-o-w, while 4,200 GAR coal prices rose by a similar range of $1.5-2/t. In comparison, lower-grade 3,400 GAR coal prices edged up marginally by $0.15-0.2/t, indicating relatively moderate demand for lower-calorific-value material.
Rising freights lift landed cost of imports
Freights for coal shipments to India increased during the week, further raising the landed cost of imported coal. According to BigMint’s freight assessment, Supramax vessel freight from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi rose by $6/t w-o-w to $23/t. The rise in freight costs added additional cost pressure for importers and contributed to the firmness in portside prices.
Outlook
Portside thermal coal prices in India are expected to remain firm, supported by higher Indonesian benchmark prices, rising freights, and policy uncertainty in Indonesia. However, buying may remain selective due to price-sensitive demand and stable domestic coal availability, with weaker consumption weighing on lower-grade coal demand.
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