- Muted demand, high port inventories keep prices largely stable
- Power plant stocks decline heightening fuel supply concerns
The Indian portside market for Indonesian-origin thermal coal remained largely stable during the week ending 3 October 2025, as seasonal factors and muted industrial demand weighed on buying activity. Traders reported limited movement across most grades, reflecting cautious sentiment and sufficient stock availability at ports.
Portside inventories rebound amid improved arrivals
In contrast, India’s portside thermal coal inventories rose by 3% w-o-w to 12.22 mnt in week 40, up from 11.86 mnt in week 39, according to provisional BigMint data.
The increase was supported by improved vessel arrivals and eased logistics bottlenecks following the rollout of GST compliance reforms. Despite this, overall buying activity remained moderate, with traders closely monitoring freight trends and near-term demand prospects.
Prices steady for key grades
As per BigMint assessments, portside prices for the 5000 GAR grade coal remained unchanged week-on-week at INR 7,100/t at Kandla and INR 7,050/t at Vizag. The 4200 GAR grade witnessed a modest decline of INR 100/t, assessed at INR 5,800/t in Kandla and INR 5,700/t in Vizag, while the 3400 GAR grade held firm at INR 4,500/t in Navlakhi.
Market participants attributed the mild price correction to subdued demand and higher mid-GAR stock levels at ports. The continued absence of Chinese buyers further restricted trade volumes, curbing any potential price uptick.
Freight rates ease slightly
Coal freight rates on the Indonesia (East Kalimantan)-India (Navlakhi) Supramax route registered a minor decline, standing at $16.25/dmt, down $0.22/dmt w-o-w. The reduction reflected steady vessel availability and limited fresh chartering activity, as traders adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid tepid cargo movement.
Power plant stocks tighten
Domestic coal inventories at Indian power plants dropped to 44.52 million tonnes (mnt) as of 9 October, equivalent to roughly 15 days of consumption. The decline pushed 18 power stations into the critical stock category including 12 units reliant on domestic coal and six dependent on imported coal.
The drawdown has heightened fuel security concerns, particularly as import arrivals remain restrained and demand from the power sector could increase with rising electricity consumption during the festive season.
Seaborne prices mixed amid muted Asian demand
In the seaborne market, Indonesian coal prices displayed mixed trends. The 5800 GAR grade edged up marginally by $0.10/t to $76.20/t, while the 4200 GAR grade fell by $0.29/t to $43.03/t. The 3400 GAR grade slipped slightly by $0.03/t to $30.60/t, as subdued buying from key Asian markets continued to weigh on sentiment.
Outlook
The Indian portside market is expected to stay range-bound, with stable to soft prices amid high inventories and weak demand. Any recovery hinges on power sector offtake, freight trends, and seasonal restocking ahead of winter.
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