- Discount narrowed this week with the trade materialised
- Chinese mills are buying low-mid grade fines for cost-effectiveness
India’s iron ore fines export market witnessed a mild recovery in the week ended 26 March, with prices showing a slight uptrend supported by improved trading activity and a narrowing of discounts. After a relatively quiet phase over the past two to three weeks, largely attributed to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the market has started to regain momentum with a pickup in spot deals.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $1.5/t w-o-w to $63.5/t FOB east coast on 26 March 2026. Meanwhile, CFR China levels rose more sharply by around $1.5/t w-o-w to $79.5/t, largely driven by higher freight costs.
Around 300,000 t of iron ore export (Fe 55-57%) deals were recorded in this publishing window.
Market scenario
Market participants noted that international traders were notably active during the week, with a rise in inquiries resulting in new transactions. An Odisha-based exporter said, “We have seen a clear improvement in buying interest compared to previous weeks. Traders are coming back with firm inquiries, which have supported deal-making.”
The improvement in sentiment has also been reflected in discount levels. Exporters noted that discounts for 57% Fe fines were hovering around 19-20%, while 55% Fe fines were being offered at 24-25%. This marks a visible narrowing compared to the wider discounts observed in recent weeks. Additionally, some sources indicated that certain cargoes sold at Chinese ports by international traders were transacted at even tighter discounts of around 16-18%.
Demand dynamics in China have played a crucial role in this trend, as weak finished steel demand is forcing mills to prioritize cost control despite being eager to ramp up production. With Chinese mills continuing to focus on cost optimization, there has been a preference for cheaper raw material options. An international trader informed, “Chinese buyers are actively procuring low- to mid-grade fines due to cost pressures, which is directly benefiting Indian exporters of lower-grade material.”
Despite the positive developments, challenges remain. Freight costs continue to weigh on exporters’ margins, limiting the overall realization from export deals. “Even though prices have improved slightly, vessel freight remains a concern and is impacting net realizations,” an exporter commented.
Several deals are currently under negotiation, which could provide further direction to the market. However, sustained recovery will depend on continued buying interest from China and stability in freight rates.
Domestic vs export market
Domestic prices exceeded export realisations by around INR 400/t ($6/t), with the gap being shrinked w-o-w. Iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices in Odisha were recorded at INR 3,900/t ($41/t) ex-mines, up marginally w-o-w on 26 March. Meanwhile, the ex-mines realisation in exports from the Barbil region was recorded at INR 3,500/t ($37/t) ex-mines.
Chinese iron ore fines prices fall w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index decreased by $2/dmt w-o-w to $108/dmt CFR China on 25 March. Trading activity picked up despite stalled negotiations, with prices supported by higher hot metal output, supply concerns, and improved portside trades. Stable blast furnace operations sustained raw material demand even as steel consumption remained weak. Buying was focused on lower-grade material.
DCE iron ore futures rise: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 816/t ($111/t) on 26 March, increasing by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window, and thus, this category was taken for calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given rest 50% weightage.
Outlook
Iron ore fines export prices are expected to remain stable in the near term, with a few more transactions likely to be finalized, which are currently under negotiation.
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