- Indian exporters pause bookings amid unviable prices
- Chinese buyers show preference for mid-grade fines
India’s iron ore fines export prices remained flat w-o-w, though the market witnessed subdued activity this week. Chinese buyers continued to show limited interest in procuring Indian fines, citing better alternatives and ongoing weak fundamentals. Exporters, in response, adopted a cautious stance, holding off on cargo bookings in anticipation of more favourable prices.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched down $0.5/t w-o-w to $59.5/tonne (t) FOB east coast on 26 June. No confirmed deals were heard in this publishing window amid downtrend in the market.
Market commentary
Market participants indicated that inquiries from Chinese mills and traders remained limited. A trader observed, “Most buyers have shifted focus towards medium-grade fines from other origins, which are currently available at comparatively lower prices. This shift, coupled with sluggish downstream demand in China, has significantly affected the volume of Indian exports.”
Miners put exports on hold amid unviable prices. Another exporter noted, “We are holding on to our cargoes for now. At current prices, concluding deals is not viable. There is hope that a slight price improvement might revive trade interest.”
However, some traders reportedly concluded cargo deals during the week, though the transactions could not be independently confirmed. There seems to be a general hesitancy and lack of confidence in the current pricing structure across the seaborne market.
Some sources expect export prices for Indian fines to remain firm in the short term, supported by limited availability and sellers’ resistance to lower offers. However, any uptick in Chinese buying interest or a rebound in steel margins could potentially trigger some trades in the coming days.
Overall, the Indian iron ore export market remains in a wait-and-watch mode, with most participants looking for signs of price stability or improvement to re-engage actively.
Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China remained stable w-o-w at $93/t CFR on 25 June, primarily due to weak fundamentals and limited trading activity for high-grade fines, with mills continuing need-based procurement. Buying interest remained concentrated on mid-grade fines, while ample spot availability resulted in a flatter physical market structure.
DCE iron ore futures up w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract inched up by RMB 7.5/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 705.5/t ($98/t) on 26 June. Meanwhile, prices were firm on a d-o-d basis.
Rationale
- No deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window. Thus, this category was not considered for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and all were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports decreased by 1 million tonnes (mnt) w-o-w to 133.6 mnt on 26 June, as per data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore export prices will remain at the current level unless there are notable shifts in global tags in the near term.
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