- Chinese mills actively restock low-grade fines post-holiday
- Lower base prices at OMC auction to help trim sourcing costs
The Indian iron ore export market remained firm this week, supported by active deal conclusions from a few key miners and sustained buying interest from overseas markets. Market participants indicated that Odisha-based miners have recently concluded multiple shipments of Fe 57% fines, commanding a premium over single-mine cargo material due to tight supply and steady demand.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $2/tonne (t) w-o-w to $71/t FOB east coast on 16 October. Indian low-grade fines export prices reached an eight-month high, matching levels last seen in the first half of February 2025.
BigMint recorded export deals for nearly 450,000 t of fines during the recent trading sessions. Current discount levels for low-grade fines hovered at around 14-15% on the global fines index, which led to active export deals this week.
Another miner confirmed that deals for lower-grade fines, below 54% Fe, were also finalised amid increased inquiries from Chinese buyers following the end of the national holiday period.
Market scenario
An international trader involved in recent deals said, “Export offers for Fe 57% fines are quite limited in the seaborne market. Only a few exporters are offering this grade, which has led to a premium in the latest concluded trades.”
The recent firmness in the market was also supported by reduced discounts on Indian fines, with traders noting that buyers material was booked at around a 15% discount. Pre-holiday, the discount was around 18-19%. However, no fresh trader deals were heard this week.
Market participants further noted that Chinese mills are showing renewed interest in mid-to-low grade fines as part of cost-optimisation strategies, leading to more aggressive buying activity following the Golden Week holiday. Another international trader said, “Chinese buyers are back in the market with a focus on lower grade fines, and this has given Indian suppliers better price realisations.”
A few exporters also said that buyers are exploring procuring low-grade fines from the latest Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auction after the miner reduced its base prices. This is expected to help suppliers manage sourcing costs.
Chinese mills are actively engaged in trading mid-grade blending fines, which continue to perform well despite narrowing profit margins and deteriorating market fundamentals. Participants in the market are currently keeping an eye on the decline in port-stock prices before making any further purchases.
Chinese spot prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index rose $2/t w-o-w to $106/t CFR China on 15 October. Trading activity strengthened, particularly in blend fines. There were limited discounted blend fines available, which caused prices to rise due to market sentiment. With limited trading occurring over the compensatory working weekend in China, mills conducted more trades, which helped support iron ore prices.
DCE iron ore futures down w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 773.5/t ($109/t) on 16 October, dropping RMB 17/t ($2/t) w-o-w.
Rationale
- Four (4) confirmed deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received Nineteen (19) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and ten (10) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports recorded at 133.4 mnt on 16 Oct, increasing 0.75 mnt w-o-w as per data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
BigMint’s analysis shows that as iron ore production along the east coast returns to normal, more export deals may be finalised in the coming days. This is likely to strengthen the near-term market outlook and maintain positive sentiment among Indian exporters.
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