- Export deals for around 350,000-t iron ore concluded
- Chinese mills show active demand for Indian fines
The Indian iron ore fines export market continued to witness supportive sentiment this week, backed by active trading in the seaborne market. Market participants noted that robust demand for Indian cargo, especially from Chinese mills kept the prices firm, with transactions actively concluded in recent days.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export remained stable w-o-w at $67.5/tonne (t) FOB east coast on 18 September. Iron ore fines export prices stood at their highest level in over six months, since the end of February.
BigMint recorded export deals for nearly 325,000 t (fines + lumps) during the recent trading sessions. Cargoes of Fe 57% fines were finalised in the range of $78-80/t CFR China. Alongside fines, a few lump cargoes floated by miners also found successful bookings, reflecting steady buying interest.
Discounts for Indian-origin Fe 57% fines were at around 17-18% in the overseas market, and deals were largely concluded in the same range.
Market scenario
According to trade sources, ongoing rumours regarding the possible imposition of export duty on lower-grade fines by the Indian government have triggered panic buying.
An international trader said, “Chinese mills are uncertain about the policy direction. If India imposes duty, the supply of low-grade fines could tighten in the global market, pushing international prices higher.”
Despite the speculation, exporters clarified that no formal meeting has been scheduled by the ministry after the first week of September. Another exporter informed BigMint, “The market is floating between optimism and caution. Until we have policy clarity, rumours will continue to drive sentiment.”
However, some participants questioned the sustainability of current levels. An exporter stated, “These prices are an artificial hike driven by fear. If no export duty is announced, we may see a correction as buyers and sellers are rushing to close deals.”
A source commented, “Uncertainty is the only certainty right now. But as long as Chinese mills keep inquiring, Indian exporters will continue to find opportunities.”
Chinese spot prices weaken w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China decreased by $1/t w-o-w to $106/t CFR on 17 September. The iron ore market was largely steady, as rising low-grade fines made blending costlier. Medium-grade trading picked up, but discounts widened. Port prices remained range-bound with mills already restocked, while high costs and possible Tangshan curbs kept fresh buying muted.
DCE iron ore futures remain firm: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 800/t ($112/t) on 18 September, up a minor RMB 4.5/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window, and hence, were taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already calculated on the Monday assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-four (24) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports fell by 0.56 mnt w-o-w to 132.07 mnt on 18 September, as per SteelHome data.
Outlook
BigMint’s analysis indicates that the near-term outlook for the market remains positive, but continued volatility is likely due to ongoing negotiations for additional shipments. Clarity regarding any policy changes for iron ore exports is anticipated after next week’s ministry meeting.
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