- Limited buying inquiries heard in last couple of days
- Exporters busy shipping cargoes as part of old deals
Indian iron ore fines export prices witnessed a decline this week, tracking the drop in international iron ore prices ahead of China’s National Day holiday. With Chinese buyers remaining absent due to the week-long holiday (1–8 October), trading activity in the seaborne market has slowed significantly, leaving exporters with limited avenues to conclude fresh deals.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index fell by $2.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $66/t FOB east coast on 1 October.
BigMint recorded export deals for nearly 270,000 t of fines during the recent trading sessions. Cargoes for Fe 56-57% fines were finalised in the range of $80/t CFR China.
Some export deals were heard at 15% on index for Fe 57% fines, but yet to be confirmed by the transacted parties. Meanwhile, Fe 54-55% cargos were booked at 21% discount on the global iron ore index.
Market scenario
A market participant mentioned, “Most Chinese buyers are away from the market during the Golden Week holiday, which has led to muted demand and low liquidity. No major buying inquiries are being heard, and most exporters are waiting for clarity once China returns to the market.”
Despite weak activity, a few sellers managed to close deals before the holiday break. Sources confirmed that some transactions were concluded at competitive discounts for single-mine cargoes, offering relief to exporters ahead of the quiet trading window. At the same time, several traders are currently focusing on shipping previously concluded cargoes and are not offering new material in the market.
Some market participants noted that buying activity has slowed down. Meanwhile, the Indian government has yet to make a decision on the iron ore export duty for lower-grade fines. The exporters remain unclear regarding this matter.
China Mineral Resources Group Co. has urged mills to stop purchasing BHP’s Jimblebar blend fines starting next week. Some large state-owned mills have already canceled their orders, while others are considering storing shipments in bonded port zones. Jimblebar, one of BHP’s key mines in Western Australia, produces ores with about Fe 60% iron content, commonly used in Chinese sintering blends.
In a notable development, an Australian miner reduced its discount for special lower-grade fines to 6.5% for October delivery, compared with 10% in September.
Chinese spot prices down w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China decreased by $2/t w-o-w to $106/t CFR on 30 September. The market softened as trades centered on medium-grade fines, with stronger interest seen for November cargoes. Steel margins are currently on the tighter side, and the recent increase in coke prices could reduce demand for fines. Cost-effectiveness remains prime concern, leading mills to prioritize low- and medium-grade fines.
DCE iron ore futures down w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 780.5/t ($113/t) on 1 October, remaining under pressure w-o-w.
Rationale
- One (1) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and not taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received eighteen (18) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and seventeen (17) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Outlook
BigMint’s analysis suggests that fresh clarity on price direction and demand recovery will emerge after 8 October, once Chinese buyers resume activity. Until then, trading is expected to remain largely absent.
Leave a Reply