- Weak demand and high stocks cap prices
- Freight and monsoon disruptions support prices
The Indian portside market for Indonesian thermal coal remained largely stable in the week ending 1 August 2025. While weak industrial demand weighed on market sentiment, rising freight rates and constrained vessel arrivals due to seasonal weather disruptions prevented any notable price corrections.
Price movement: Stability across key grades
According to the latest market assessment by BigMint, prices of Indonesian thermal coal across major Indian ports showed minimal week-on-week (w-o-w) variation. The 5000 GAR grade held firm at INR 7,150 per tonne at Kandla and INR 7,050/t at Vizag. Likewise, the 4200 GAR grade remained unchanged at INR 5,700/t at Kandla and INR 5,600/t at Vizag.
The only notable movement was observed in the 3400 GAR grade, which increased marginally by INR 50/t to INR 4,400/t at Navlakhi Port, reflecting localized supply tightness.
A source mentioned “Chinese mining output has decreased due to strict action against illegal operations and ongoing heavy rains, resulting in some spot demand despite sufficient stock levels.”
Indian portside inventories decline
India’s total portside thermal coal inventory registered a weekly decline of 5.3%, falling to 14.77 million tonnes (mnt) in week 30 of 2025 from 15.60 mnt in the previous week. This drop was primarily attributed to reduced vessel arrivals, as monsoon-related logistical bottlenecks continued to impact coal handling at key ports.
Freight rates rise on Indonesian supply chain challenges
Shipping costs have trended upward, adding pressure to landed coal prices. Supramax freight rates on the Indonesia (East Kalimantan)-India (Navlakhi) route increased by $0.23/dmt w-o-w, reaching $16.14/dmt. The rise was driven by falling water levels in Kalimantan, which have hindered vessel loading and movement, leading to congestion and delays at export terminals.
Thermal power plant stocks sufficient but unevenly distributed
Coal stock levels at Indian thermal power plants declined to 54.33 mnt as of 30 July 2025, down from 55.19 mnt a week earlier. While the overall stockpile is sufficient for approximately 18 days of generation, 13 power plants continue to operate with critically low inventory levels. The shortages span across domestic, imported, and washery-reject coal, underlining persistent inefficiencies in coal distribution and supply chain coordination.
Modest gains in Indonesian coal prices
International prices of Indonesian thermal coal saw marginal increases during the week. The 5800 GAR grade rose by $0.90/t to $73.41, while the 4200 GAR grade increased by $0.67/t to $41.12. Similarly, the 3400 GAR grade rose by $0.53/t to $28.92. Despite the modest uptrend, overall market sentiment remains cautious due to tepid demand recovery in key importing regions.
Outlook: Rangebound prices with cautious undertone
In the near term, Indian portside Indonesian coal prices are likely to stay rangebound, with weak industrial demand and sufficient domestic stocks capping gains. However, high freight costs and monsoon-related disruptions may offer short-term support. A clearer price trend could emerge post-monsoon, depending on Chinese output, regional supply conditions, and a potential revival in power sector demand.
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