- IF rebar prices in major markets rise to 5-month high
- Mills’ stocks drop to 7-8 days, no selling pressure seen
India’s induction furnace (IF) rebar prices rose in March 2025. Rebar (Fe 500) tags increased by INR 1,300-2,900/tonne (t) m-o-m, driven by strong buying activity, as per BigMint’s analysis. Significantly, prices in most major markets hit a 5-month high.
Bulk procurement was observed, with rising demand from both retailers and the project segment. Additionally, support from raw material prices and speculation around the safeguard duty proposal further boosted market sentiment.
Smooth lifting of previously booked material brought inventory levels down to 7-8 days compared to the usual 8-10 days. Given these factors, manufacturers raised their offers while limiting discounts. Mills also reported a high backlog of previous orders awaiting delivery.
Notably, India’s rebar production (including both IF and BF routes) in February 2025 reached 4.27 million tonnes (mnt), a marginal decrease of 3% in comparison to around 4.4 mnt in January, according to JPC data.
Factors impacting market
Raw material prices rise m-o-m: Higher prices of steel billets and sponge iron, the basic raw materials for IF-route products, also supported the finished market. Active buying inquiries and trades in several markets allowed manufacturers to keep prices on the higher side. Considering the Raipur market as the benchmark, billet prices increased by INR 1,850/t m-o-m to INR 41,850/t, a 6-month high, and sponge iron (PDRI FeM 80% +/- 1) rose by INR 1,200/t m-o-m to INR 26,200/t exw.
Meanwhile, BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines index (Fe 62%) rose by INR 200/t m-o-m to INR 5,100/t in March 2025. The rise in prices was supported by the tighter availability of iron ore following the expiry of environmental clearances (ECs) for this fiscal year, as well as an increase in pellet tags in the eastern region. Moreover, the March auction from the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) received a positive response from steelmakers.
OMC sold around 1.29 mnt (97%) of fines, with bids (weighted average) rising by INR 200/t m-o-m in the March auction.
However, India’s prices of domestic 60-14 grade silico manganese dipped by INR 300/t ($4/t) m-o-m to around INR 72,800/t ($850/t) exw Raipur in March 2025 compared to INR 73,100/t ($854/t) in February, as per BigMint’s assessment. The decline can be attributed to need-based purchases in the region.
BF-route prices surge m-o-m: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices rose by INR 2,100/t m-o-m to an average of INR 54,900/t exy-Mumbai in March 2025. Prices rose amid a number of price hikes by mills during the month. Additionally, limited material availability in the trade channel also lent support to the prices.
In the projects segment, prices increased by 3,300/t m-o-m to a monthly average price of INR 53,900/t FOR Mumbai. End-user demand was consistently strong, with active procurement observed, as project completion deadlines approached before the financial year’s closure.
Outlook
IF rebar prices are expected to rise in the near term, as manufacturers, now relieved from inventory pressure, may push for hikes. Increased demand from both retailers and the project segment is likely to provide additional support.
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