India: HRC export index for EU remains stable w-o-w as Christmas holiday slowdown sets in

• HRC offers to the EU, Middle East remain stable w-o-w
• HRC offers to Nepal increase as domestic prices rise

BigMint’s India HRC (S275) export index for the European Union (EU) remained stable w-o-w at $520/t FOB main port, as market activity remained stable with participants entering holiday mode ahead of the Christmas celebrations. Moreover, India HRC (SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East remained unchanged w-o-w at around $465/t. A source told BigMint: “Demand in the region remained slow ahead of the upcoming Christmas holidays”.

1. HRC offers to EU: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained unchanged w-o-w at $570/t CFR Antwerp as buying interest remained limited driven by both approaching holidays and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which has kept many buyers cautious, sources informed BigMint. Meanwhile, the European HRC market remains stable ahead of winter holidays, with demand remaining largely flat.

2. HRC offers to Middle East: Indian export offers for HRC to the Middle East remained stable w-o-w at around $490/t CFR UAE. Meanwhile, a deal of approximately 30,000 t was reportedly concluded at $485/t CFR UAE spurred by the Indian rupee’s depreciation, which made Indian steel cheaper in dollar terms. The INR recently slid from around INR 87 to over INR 91 per USD in late 2025 – a roughly 5% drop driven by trade uncertainties.

Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East also remained unchanged w-o-w at $480/t CFR UAE, reflecting slow demand ahead of the Christmas holidays.

HRC January 2026 contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased marginally by RMB 32/t ($5/t), or 1%, w-o-w to RMB 3,284/t ($467/t) on 23 December, up from RMB 3,252/t ($463/t) on 16 December.

3. HRC offers to Nepal: Indian export offers to Nepal rose by $15/t w-o-w to $495/t CFR Raxaul from $480/t the previous week, driven by an increase in domestic HRC prices. “Prices are likely to increase further but demand in the region remains weak”, said a source.

Outlook

The short-term outlook for Indian HRC exports is stable yet sluggish. Prices remain firm despite quiet market activity as participants enter holiday mode. While the INR’s depreciation aids competitiveness, CBAM uncertainties in the EU and weak regional demand likely limit immediate growth.