The vessel-line up data (as on 16 Sep’20) maintained with CoalMint reveals that a total quantity of 3.17 mn t of thermal coal is coming into India in the next 10 days.
Key highlights
—The highest quantity of 0.57 mn t is set to arrive at Gangavaram port with majority quantity coming from South Africa.
—CoalMint had learnt from the market participants that with South32 announcing production cut (starting from 1 Sep’20) at one of its mines catering to export market, the thermal coal buyers in India had increased their import bookings for South African coal during the start of the month.
—At Gangavaram port, Adani Enterprise and IMR Resources are the two players having highest quantity of vessels at 0.33 mn t and 0.24 mn t respectively coming by 29 Sep’20.
—Mundra port is the next highest receiver of thermal coal at 0.48 mn t with entire quantity coming from Indonesia.
—-In our last assessment as on 1 Sep’20, the highest quantity of coal was expected to arrive at Navlakhi port by 26 Sep’20, with majority coming from Indonesia.
Highest quantity of coal coming from Indonesia
—Out of the total quantity of 3.17 mn t thermal coal vessel coming in, country-wise, highest quantity is coming from Indonesia at 1.88 mn t followed by South Africa at 1.03 mn t.
—None of the shipments is coming from U.S. and Mozambique in next ten days
Adani Enterprise has highest quantity of coal coming
—Adani Enterprise tops the list with 0.77 mn t of thermal coal expected to arrive at Indian ports with majority coming from South Africa at 0.65 mn t followed by Indonesia at 0.12 mn t.
—This is followed by IMR Resources with 0.36 mn t of thermal coal coming from South Africa, Indonesia, and Australia.
Outlook: CoalMint Analysis
While it was anticipated that South African coal price may find some support with South32 announcing its production cut, this didn’t happen and South African coal index continues to remain at similar levels of what it was during the start of September.
In discussion with market participants, CoalMint has learnt that, cement sector is now preferring Australian coal over South African one, the former being available at cheaper rates. Thus, it is likely that India may see increased shipments of Australian coal in the upcoming days.
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