India: Domestic HRC remains more cost-competitive than imports from China after safeguard duty

• Bulk HRC imports edge up m-o-m in Sep’25
• Safeguard duty favouring domestic mills

India’s imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers from China stood at around $500/tonne (t) CFR India as on 7 October 2025. Furthermore, 12% safeguard is added on imports of specific non-alloy and alloy steel flat products if the prices are below threshold price. For HRC imports, this threshold has been set at $675/t CIF.

Domestic HRC prices

Leading Indian steel manufacturers have decreased prices of HRCs and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) by INR 750-1,500/t) ($8-17/t) for October sales as compared to the list prices of early-September. However, from the net sales prices of end-September, list prices have been raised by around INR 500/t ($6/t) for October.

BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) dropped by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 48,300/t ($544/t) on 7 October against INR 48,500 ($546/t) on 30 September. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

M-o-m, trade-level prices of HRCs fell by INR 800/t ($9/t) to INR 49,100/t ($553/t) in September against INR 49,900/t ($562/t) a month ago.

Price gap analysis

The import price of HRC to India from China involves several cost components. The base price is $500/t CFR for China. For Chinese imports, a 7.5% Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and a 0.75% cess (10% of BCD) are applied, taking the effective cost to $541/t. At a conversion rate of INR 88.70/USD, these values translate to INR 47,987/t for China.

However, as the figures are below the threshold import price of $675/t, a safeguard duty of 12% and an additional cess of 1.2% (10% of safeguard duty) are levied, amounting to an additional duty of $71/t for China (i.e., 13.2% of the respective import value).

This brings the post-duty cost to $612/t for China, or INR 54,284/t. Adding INR 2,000/t for port handling and miscellaneous charges, the final landed cost comes to INR 56,284/t for Chinese HRC.

When compared with the domestic HRC price of INR 48,300/t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST), Chinese imports are notably more expensive.

Bulk HRC imports

India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in September totalled 464,694 t, a decline of 37% y-o-y from 740,281 t in September 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports rose by 18% m-o-m against 394,083 t in August.

In September, South Korea, Japan and China were India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 197,498 t, 170,149 t and 46,949 t respectively. South Korean imports remained stable y-o-y, whereas shipments from Japan edged up by 4%, and Chinese imports registered a steep 69% drop during the same period.

Outlook

The Indian HRC market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term, as recent safeguard and anti-dumping duties are likely to keep imports costly, supporting domestic prices and reinforcing market stability. However, any global policy change or disruptive trade measure could affect market dynamics.