India: Cumin prices strengthen as arrivals and stocks decline

• BigMint’s ex-Unjha cumin benchmark rises 2.6% w-o-w to INR 22,890/qtl 
• Lower stocks support prices while October futures gain on short covering

India’s cumin market strengthened in the week ended 2 October, supported by lower arrivals and declining stocks. BigMint’s ex-Unjha cumin benchmark rose 2.6% w-o-w to INR 22,890/quintal (qtl) from INR 22,306/qtl, while spot prices increased 1.8% to INR 22,395/qtl from INR 22,004/qtl. Arrivals declined 18.8% to 8,765 tonnes (t) from 10,792 t, while stocks fell 6.7% to 3,578 t from 3,835 t.

Cumin prices gain as arrivals and stocks decline

BigMint’s ex-Unjha benchmark increased by INR 584/qtl during the week, while NCDEX spot prices rose INR 391/qtl. The price gains coincided with a decline in physical arrivals, which fell by 2,027 t W-o-W to 8,765 t.

Lower arrivals reduced fresh supply availability in the spot market, while stocks declined by 257 t to 3,578 t. The combination of reduced arrivals and lower inventories provided support to prices during the week.

Futures market signals stronger positioning

October cumin futures increased 2.3% w-o-w to INR 22,825/qtl from INR 22,310/qtl. Open interest, however, declined 29.7% to 4,809 t from 6,840 t. The combination of rising prices and falling open interest indicates short covering in the October contract.

November futures rose 2.4% to INR 23,295/qtl from INR 22,745/qtl, while open interest surged to 4,107 t from 1,512 t, an increase of around 171.6%. Rising prices alongside a sharp increase in open interest indicates fresh long buildup, pointing to stronger bullish positioning in the November contract.

The shift in participation from October toward November, along with firm futures prices, indicates that market positioning remains supportive beyond the near-term contract.

Outlook

Cumin prices are likely to maintain a firm undertone in the near term, with lower arrivals and stocks providing support to the physical market. Short covering in October and fresh long buildup in November futures are also supporting market sentiment. However, the sustainability of the price rise will depend on demand and the pace of fresh arrivals as the market progresses.