- Pre-monsoon stockpiling boosts scrap procurement
- Strong backwardation seen amid US tariff expectations
Indian copper scrap prices showed an uptrend this week, following trends prevailing on the London Metal Exchange (LME) platform. Copper armature scrap was assessed at INR 820,000/tonne (t) ex-Delhi, up by INR 17,000/t w-o-w, while motors mix stood at $1,200/t, up by 4.34% w-o-w.
LME futures increased by $313/t to $9,900/t compared with last week’s $9,587/t. Meanwhile, copper stocks at LME-registered warehouses stood at 93,075 t, down by roughly 10,250 t compared to 103,325 t the previous week.
Copper inventories on the LME have plunged 60% since mid-February 2025 to around 96,000 t, the lowest since August 2023. The market saw a sharp inversion, with spot prices exceeding futures by $345/t, marking the strongest backwardation since 2021. Amid expectations of a possible 5% US tariff, traders moved over 200,000 t of copper to US warehouses in April 2025, significantly draining stocks from Europe, Asia, and LME locations.
Secondary continuously cast rods (CCRs) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 892,000/t ex-Delhi, up by INR 26,000/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 920,000/t, up by INR 15,000 w-o-w.
Market scenario
Copper scrap demand stayed strong, as buyers continued procuring material in expectation of a post-monsoon trade rebound. Many opted to stock up in advance of the seasonal uptick expected after the rains. However, tradeable volumes remained limited during the monsoon, with tight supply restricting spot availability, particularly for high-conductivity grades such as Berry and Millberry. This cautious buying and stockpiling approach shaped short-term market dynamics.
According to BigMint’s assessment, copper scrap prices in India this week remained well-aligned with prevailing LME benchmark levels. Middle East-origin Birch/Cliff averaged around $9,165/t w-o-w, rising by $350/t from $8,815/t the previous week. US-origin copper motor scrap strengthened to $1,200/t, up by $50/t from $1,150/t. Meanwhile, Brass Honey from the Middle East firmed to an average of $6,305/t CIF Mundra, registering a $175/t increase over the prior week’s $6,130/t.
In contrast, LME cash copper prices increased by $403/t to $10,115/t compared with last week’s $9,712/t, keeping premium scrap grades such as Birch/Cliff at a consistent 5-7% discount to refined copper.
However, tightening refined copper supply and shrinking LME inventories are reshaping scrap pricing dynamics. Notably, Millberry, which typically traded at 97-98% of the three-month LME price, has now reached parity and, in some cases, surpassed it. Reports indicate deals being closed at up to 101% of the LME price.
This rare inversion underscores the increasing value of clean, high-grade scrap as a premium substitute in a supply-constrained copper market.
Outlook
India’s copper scrap market is expected to remain firm in the near term, driven by consistent demand from secondary smelters and CCR manufacturers. Limited scrap availability, coupled with sellers holding back in hopes of improved pricing, is likely to sustain upward pressure on rates. Intense competition for premium grades such as Berry, Candy, and Millberry is also expected to keep domestic premiums high, despite persistent global price fluctuations.
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