- Improved deliveries arrest the latest inventory decline
- High coal burn leaves little room for replenishment
India’s power plant coal inventories are showing early signs of recovery after September’s sharp depletion. As monsoon disruptions recede, deliveries have moved closer to consumption, allowing stocks to stabilise despite continued high electricity demand and weaker hydro generation.
The immediate challenge has therefore shifted: supplies are increasingly meeting daily requirements, but a sustained surplus is needed to rebuild the buffer lost during September.
Total monitored stocks increased for three consecutive days during 9-11 October, reaching 20.87 mnt. However, inventories remained approximately 8.25 mnt below the 1 September level, while 87 plants were still classified critical.
From rapid depletion to near-balanced supply position
September substantially reduced the power sector’s coal reserves. Plants received 70.79 mnt against consumption of 78.64 mnt, leaving a deficit of approximately 7.85 mnt. Reported inventories fell by 27%, from 29.12 mnt to 21.24 mnt.
The imbalance continued into early October, but narrowed considerably as supplies improved.
Average daily receipts increased from approximately 2.57 mnt during 1-6 October to 2.75 mnt during 7-11 October. Average consumption remained around 2.70 mnt/day.
This indicates that stronger deliveries, rather than a broad retreat in coal demand, helped bring the system back towards balance.
Logistics catching up with daily requirements
The receipt data suggest that coal evacuation and delivery are increasingly keeping pace with power plant consumption.
During September, deliveries covered only 90% of coal burn. Coverage improved to 95% during the first six days of October and exceeded 100% during the following five days.
That is a meaningful operational improvement. Plants no longer had to rely on a large collective inventory drawdown to maintain generation during the latest period.
However, the surplus remained modest. During 7-11 October, receipts exceeded consumption by only 0.20 mnt, equivalent to approximately 40,000 t/day.
The evidence therefore supports an improvement in the delivery system’s ability to meet current requirements. It does not yet demonstrate enough spare capacity to rebuild inventories quickly across all regions.
High demand and weak hydro limit rebuilding
Power plants continue to burn substantial quantities of coal. During 1-11 October, coal generation increased by 27.2% year-on-year, while hydro generation declined by 24.8%. Coal supplied nearly 79% of the net increase in electricity generation.
With hydro providing less support, seasonal improvement in coal production and transport must first meet a high daily consumption requirement. Only deliveries above that requirement can restore stocks.
Sunday, 11 October, provided some additional breathing space. Consumption fell to 2.63 mnt, helping generate a daily supply surplus of approximately 0.10 mnt.
Whether that surplus survives the return of stronger weekday demand will be more informative than a single day’s improvement.
Replenishment remains uneven
Domestic-coal-based plants held 18.32 mnt on 11 October, compared with 18.07 mnt on 6 October. Imported-coal-based plants increased their stocks from 2.37 mnt to 2.54 mnt over the same period.
However, domestic coal-based plants received only approximately 0.02 mnt more than they consumed during 7-11 October. Imported-coal plants accounted for most of the combined supply surplus.
Some reported recovery also reflects inventory reporting changes. Udangudi’s stock balance increased from zero on 6 October to approximately 0.13 mnt on 7 October without a corresponding receipt recorded that day.
Consequently, the national stock increase should not be interpreted entirely as fresh coal deliveries.
At individual plants, the position remained tight. All five monitored Haryana plants were critical, alongside eight of nine in Rajasthan, six of seven in Karnataka and 15 of 22 in Maharashtra. Bellary, Amravati and GMR Warora still had particularly thin inventories.
When will sustained stock rebuilding begin?
Modest rebuilding has already begun in the latest national stock observations. The question is when it becomes sustained and widespread.
That requires receipts to exceed consumption consistently, particularly at domestic-coal-based plants. Matching coal burn stops depletion; it does little to restore the buffer.
The scale of the task is considerable. Recovering the approximately 8.25 mnt lost since 1 September would take around 83 days at a sustained surplus of 0.10 mnt/day, or approximately 41 days at 0.20 mnt/day.
These are illustrations, not forecasts. Demand, hydro availability, deliveries and inventory adjustments will determine the actual pace.
BigMint assessment
The latest data indicate that the rapid depletion phase has paused and selective replenishment has started. Improved deliveries are allowing the system to cope more effectively with high coal consumption.
The next milestone is a sustained receipt surplus through normal weekday demand, followed by a declining number of critical plants.
Until both occur, India’s coal stocks should be described as stabilising with an early recovery-not yet comfortably replenished.
Leave a Reply