India: Coal freights exhibit mixed trends w-o-w; Pacific Basin sees tight vessel supply

• Rising thermal coal port stocks limit fresh inquiries
• Bid-offer disparities drag down Supramax rates

Panamax coal freights to India exhibited a mixed trend w-o-w, reflecting regional variances in vessel demand and supply dynamics. While freights from Australia and South Africa to India saw upward momentum, the Indonesia-India route recorded a marginal decline.

The recent rise in Panamax coal freights, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, could be attributed to increased demand for tonnage amid a tightening supply of available vessels. Charterers targeting early-July loading dates from Australia showed heightened activity, which pushed up rates due to limited ship availability. The supply-demand imbalance, especially in the Pacific basin, forced charterers to offer premiums to secure vessels, supporting the freight market despite broader uncertainty in dry bulk sentiment.

Additionally, a shift in owner strategy, driven by volatile coal prices and weak cargo demand from key regions such as Indonesia and South America, helped buoy freights. While the derivatives market showed some softness, spot freights remained relatively supported by this strategic tonnage repositioning and short-term regional demand.

Supramax coal freights saw a decline due to a stand-off between shipowners and charterers, where charterers resisted higher freight offers despite healthy tonnage demand. A slowdown in the conclusion of fixtures, particularly on routes such as Indonesia to India, contributed to the overall softening of freights.

Notably, thermal coal inventories at Indian ports rose further by 4.3% to 16 million tonnes (mnt) in week 24 of CY’25 from 15.35 mnt in the previous week. The increase came amid improved vessel arrivals at some ports, especially Goa, where Adani Enterprises and JSW Steel cargoes were unloaded. However, the uptrend slowed down fresh inquiries from India.

Baltic indices rise w-o-w: Vessel demand indicators saw an uptick w-o-w, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbing up by 335 points to 1,968 as of 16 June. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) also advanced by 152 points to 1,401 compared to 1,249 a week earlier. The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) inched up slightly, gaining 3 points w-o-w to settle at 936.

Route specifications

• Australia-India rates rise: Freights from Australia to India rose by $0.4/t w-o-w, with BigMint’s assessment indicating that rates for Hay Point Port to Paradip were at $14.1/dry metric tonne (dmt). Sources informed that SAIL booked one Panamax vessel from Australia to Gangavaram at $16.6/t, with shipment scheduled for 10-19 July.
• South Africa-India freights climb up: Freights from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) to Paradip increased w-o-w by $1.6/t to $12.6/t due to tighter vessel availability amid upcoming Transnet maintenance, which raised scheduling uncertainties. Additionally, charterers rushed to secure tonnage in advance, supporting rate hikes.
• Indonesia-India freights fall: Freights for coal shipments from East Kalimantan to Paradip inched down by $0.3/t to $12.8/t w-o-w due to stable supply fundamentals and sufficient tonnage availability.