India: Bulk HRC imports decline 26% y-o-y in Jan’26

• Imports shrink as landed costs remain high post safeguard duty
• Exports decline over 30% m-o-m due to CBAM-related uncertainty

India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in January 2026 totalled 299,673 tonnes (t), a decline of 26% from 4,06,255 t in January 2025, as per BigMint’s vessel line-up data. Moreover, imports decreased by 21% compared to 380,944 t recorded in December 2025. The m-o-m drop in HRC imports reflects the final implementation of the three-year staggered safeguard duty on 30 December 2025, sustaining the downtrend in volumes following the duty’s provisional implementation in April 2025.

In January, South Korea, China and Japan emerged as the top three bulk HRC exporters to India, shipping 100,785 t, 97,098 t, and 54,496 t, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 30% y-o-y, and those from Japan dropped by 39%. However, shipments from China climbed up by 92% over the same period.

The sharp uptick in imports from China could be attributed to bookings made in November and December, following the expiry of the provisional safeguard duty, which had been in force for 200 days. At that time, there was no clarity regarding the final implementation of the duty, which had allowed exporters to conclude some bookings. Following the official notification on 31 December, no firm offers have been heard from China, with deals also remaining absent.

Additionally, the landed costs of imports remain higher than domestic prices due to the added safeguard duty, widening the gap and making domestic material more favourable for market participants than higher-cost imports.

W-o-w price assessment

Currently, BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) increased by INR 800/t ($9/t) w-o-w to INR 53,800/t ($597/t) on 3 February 2026 against INR 53,000 ($588/t) on 27 January. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Domestic prices remain lower than imported equivalents, which range from INR 55,500-56,700/t ($616-628/t) after duties and other landing costs. This gap continues to keep local material more attractive for Indian buyers.

Export volumes climb y-o-y

On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes jumped 155% y-o-y in January 2026 to 285,613 t compared to 111,838 t in January 2025, fuelled by rupee depreciation, from INR 87 in January 2025 to January 2026 INR 91 per USD, enhancing mills’ price competitiveness and rupee realisations from dollar-denominated global markets.

However, export volumes declined 34% m-o-m from 430,090 t shipped in December, driven by uncertainty surrounding CBAM compliance and the pending EU trade deal. This fostered cautious sentiment among market participants, resulting in reduced shipment activity.