- Global fines spot, future indices rise w-o-w
- Domestic prices exceed export offers by $25/t
Pellet prices in the export market witnessed a marginal rebound this week, supported by an improvement in the global fines index. However, Indian exporters remained largely on the sidelines as no confirmed export deals were reported.
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) rose by $4/t w-o-w to $92.5/t on 16 April 2025 against the previous assessment on 9 April. Export market deals remained absent amid bid-offer disparities and weak market sentiments.
A key exporter floated a tender recently, but market bids fell short of expectations, complicating deal finalisations. “Buyers are cautious, and most of the bids are coming in significantly below the floated levels,” said a market participant. As a result, Indian exporters are opting to wait for a clearer price direction.
Domestic prices exceeded export offers by INR 2,100/t ($25/t). Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,150/t ($95/t) exw, firm w-o-w. Meanwhile, ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil stood at INR 6,050/t ($71/t) exw.
A market participant commented: “Pellet export prices gained some traction this week but failed to reflect in the physical deals, which didn’t improve market sentiments. Buyers are putting in lower prices for material, which is hardly accepted by the sellers.”
In contrast, the domestic Indian pellet market remains relatively optimistic with steady demand and healthy margins. Exporters are now closely watching the upcoming OMC iron ore auction in April to reassess production costs amid the sluggish export market.
On the other hand, Chinese mills continue to show buying interest in cost-effective spot portside cargoes. An eastern India-based exporter informed, “Chinese mills are price-sensitive right now; they’re going for portside material that offers quicker delivery and better margins.”
Rationale
- No confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was not taken into consideration for today’s price calculations and accorded 0% weightage in the index calculation. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and seven (7) were considered for calculation of the index and given 100% weightage.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices up w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index rose by $4/t w-o-w to $100/t CFR China on 15 April. The uptick came amid renewed trading interest, with mills procuring high- and medium-grade cargoes at a stable premium, though on a need-only basis. Due to ample supply and cheaper portside prices, mills shifted focus to the spot market. However, secondary market activity was sluggish, as participants awaited clearer direction.
DCE iron ore futures up w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract decreased w-o-w by RMB 19 ($3/t) to RMB 708/t ($96/t) on 16 April. On a d-o-d basis, futures inched down by RMB 5/t ($1/t).
Iron ore pellet inventories at major Chinese ports remained largely stable w-o-w at 4.65 mnt on 10 April, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, pellet export offers continue to remain volatile amid global price fluctuations and weak counter-bids from buyers. The likelihood of active export deals in the near term remains low.
Leave a Reply