- Lower export realisations discourage traders
- Bid-offer disparities widen, preventing deals
Indian pellet prices remained largely range-bound w-o-w in the export market, with no major trades observed. Market participants remained cautious, as lower realisations discouraged exporters from concluding deals at prevailing prices.
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) remained stable w-o-w at $96/tonne (t) on 12 March 2025 against the previous assessment on 7 March. No trades were recorded this week from the east coast.
Domestic prices exceeded export offers by INR 1,750/t ($20/t) w-o-w as compared to INR 1,550/t ($18/t) last week. Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,150/t ($94/t) exw, up INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w. Meanwhile, ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil stood at INR 6,450/t ($74/t) exw.
A trader commented, “Inquiries have been sluggish, and the bid-offer gap between buyers and sellers has widened, making it difficult to close deals. Buyers have been bidding at lower levels, but sellers are reluctant to match these prices, leading to limited activity.”
On the other hand, domestic pellet prices were supported by active deals concluded by the steelmakers. Demand was also decent in the domestic market against the international segment.
The global Chinese iron ore fines spot index did not show any significant improvement, which further kept pellet prices stable. A seller noted, “International pellet demand has been subdued, and with Chinese buying interest on the lower side, there is no support for an upward price movement.”
Amid the uncertainty, exporters are closely watching global market trends and potential restocking demand from China.
Commenting on the current market dynamics, another trader stated, “If Chinese steel mills show renewed interest, we may see some movement, but for now, the market remains quiet.”
Indian pellet prices are expected to hover at the existing levels unless demand picks up or global indices witness a major shift in sentiment.
Rationale
- No confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was not taken into consideration for today’s price calculations and accorded 0% weightage in the index calculation. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and eight (8) were considered for calculation of the index and given 100% weightage.
Factors impacting pellet exports
- Chinese iron ore fines prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index remained stable w-o-w at $102/t CFR China on 11 March. Seaborne cargo prices increased, though wider discounts were seen on some medium-grade fines as Australian shipments resumed. Some sources noted that the market had stabilised, with end-user demand favouring premium medium-grade products for better margins.
- DCE iron ore futures hold firm w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract remained largely stable w-o-w at RMB 774.5/t ($106/t) on 12 March. On a d-o-d basis, futures inched up by RMB 3.5/t ($0.5/t).
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, pellet export prices will remain range-bound in the coming days amid the downtrend in market sentiment and lack of buying interest for raw pellets.
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